The upcoming race to lead House Republicans may be impacted by President Donald Trump's influence, which some lawmakers believe is waning. With the possibility of House Republicans being in the minority next year, opinions vary on whether Trump's endorsement will significantly affect Mike Johnson's chances to remain the top elected leader. A GOP lawmaker, speaking anonymously, stated, "Not one bit," when asked about the relevance of Trump's endorsement, suggesting that any losses would lead to blame directed at the president.
Trump's influence has been notable in previous leadership contests, including during Kevin McCarthy's bid in 2023, where Trump's endorsement helped sway some members. He also intervened in the speaker's race following McCarthy's ouster, impacting Rep. Tom Emmer's chances with a post on Truth Social. As Mike Johnson seeks a full term as speaker in 2024, Trump has pressured some members to support Johnson, who has expressed his desire to lead regardless of the party's majority status.
While Johnson has the backing of Trump, who reportedly holds a favorable view of him, the path ahead is complicated. A senior GOP member noted, "He will not run unopposed." Johnson's spokesperson directed inquiries to his recent interviews, where he expressed confidence in retaining the majority and leading the conference.
In a recent Fox News interview, Johnson mentioned uncertainty about his future if Democrats gain control, joking about starting a lawn business in his hometown. He later clarified that he expects to continue leading if the House is divided. Other potential candidates for the GOP leadership include House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, both of whom are laying groundwork for their candidacies.
Despite Trump's backing, past endorsements have not guaranteed success. In 2023, Scalise won a private ballot despite Trump's public support for Jordan. Similarly, Jordan's eventual nomination did not translate into votes on the floor, as some members opposed him. Jordan has since been working to improve his standing within the conference through regular communication with colleagues.
Trump's influence may increase if Republicans retain the majority, as votes for speaker would be public. However, if they are in the minority, voting will occur via secret ballot, which could diminish Trump's sway, according to Republican lawmakers. White House spokesperson Liz Huston stated that Trump is focused on maintaining Republican majorities in Congress, with one lawmaker commenting, "If we win, then POTUS runs the show, as always. But if we lose, he’s got a lot less stroke."