Polling Indicates Decline in Latino Support for Republicans

<p>House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is facing challenges in maintaining support from Latino voters, who are reportedly shifting back toward Democrats, according to recent polling data. This trend could impact Republican strategies as they prepare for upcoming elections.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Latino voters' dissatisfaction with President Trump has been noted during his second term, and Democrats are optimistic that this shift could help them replicate their success from the 2018 midterms.</p><hr /><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> Recent polling from Equis Research shows that Democrats currently hold a 57% to 31% lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, marking their widest lead of the year.</p><ul><li><strong>In battleground districts,</strong> Democrats lead 62% to 38% among likely Latino voters in two-way races, surpassing the party's 2022 level of 57%.</li><li><strong>This is significantly higher</strong> than the 49% of Latinos who voted Democratic in 2024, but lower than the 67% who supported Democrats in 2018, according to Equis, a key authority on Latino voting behavior.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Republicans had believed that Trump's gains among Latino voters in 2024 indicated a potential realignment, but ongoing polling suggests that Latino voters have not firmly aligned with the GOP.</p><ul><li><strong>In Florida,</strong> GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar has addressed Trump directly in a campaign advertisement regarding his immigration policies.</li><li><strong>The Equis survey,</strong> conducted from September 23 to October 2, reveals a decline in Trump's support among Latino voters.</li><li><strong>Trump's approval rating</strong> among this demographic is currently at 30%, with a disapproval rate of 65%, marking a 35-point deficit — a new low in Equis surveys.</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines:</strong> Economic issues, particularly rising gas prices and the cost of living, are contributing to dissatisfaction among Latino voters.</p><ul><li><strong>76%</strong> of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's management of the cost of living, which 52% identify as their primary concern.</li><li><strong>54% trust Democrats more</strong> on economic issues, compared to 33% who trust Republicans.</li><li><strong>This gives Democrats</strong> a 21-point advantage on economic matters, an increase from a 7-point lead in February.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line:</strong> Latino voters played a significant role in Trump's election. The latest Equis survey suggests they may now help Democrats regain control of Congress.</p><p><em>Note: The Equis survey was conducted from September 23 to October 2 via phone and text-to-web with 1,800 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationally.</em></p><ul><li><em>The sample was weighted to reflect the demographics of registered voters identified as Latino by state, gender, age, education, voting history, voter registration date, VCH score, and 2024 voting recall.</em></li></ul>