Polls Indicate Tight Race Between Talarico and Paxton in Texas Senate Race

<p>On October 8, 2026, during a discussion on "The View," co-host Sunny Hostin predicted that Texas may vote for a Democratic candidate for the first time in approximately 30 years, citing a tight race between Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate.</p><p>Hostin stated, "I think we will see Texas go blue, actually. I really do. In September, not only one, but eight pollsters had Talarico ahead 51-45%. That is so significant given that a Democrat hasn't won statewide office in 30 years."</p><p>She noted that the same poll indicated Talarico leads Paxton among women, 56% to 40%, among voters aged 18 to 29, 66% to 22%, and among Hispanic voters, 62% to 30%.</p><p>Co-host Alyssa Farah Griffin suggested that Talarico's lead reflects voter dissatisfaction with the current leadership, stating, "The fact that Texas is in play speaks to the moment right now that people are so frustrated with the current leadership. A Democrat hasn't won statewide in Texas in over 30 years. I still think it could go either direction for Paxton or Talarico, but this is kind of a perfect storm, and it's a mess of the president's own making."</p><p>Griffin also expressed support for Talarico as a strong candidate, suggesting that Senator John Cornyn would have been a more formidable opponent than Paxton, who was endorsed by Trump and won the GOP primary.</p><p>A Fox News poll released in October found Talarico with a net positive personal rating of 8 points among likely Texas voters (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton had a net negative rating of 18 points (40% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable). The poll indicated that Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) compared to Democrats viewing Talarico unfavorably (5%).</p><p>Likely Texas voters are divided on Senate control, with 49% preferring a Democratic Senate and 50% favoring a Republican Senate. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans indicated a preference for Democratic control, while only 1% of Democrats preferred the GOP.</p><p>The polling results show Talarico with a slight 2-point lead over Paxton (51-49%), with these results falling within the margin of sampling error.</p><p>Co-hosts Whoopi Goldberg and Ana Navarro expressed skepticism about the positive polling for Talarico. Navarro remarked, "Two-thousand sixteen left me scared," while Goldberg emphasized the importance of voter turnout, stating, "People got to turn hope into vote. And I don't think they, you know, relying on polls and just kind of sitting back and getting complacent is something that nobody can afford to do if they want to see change."</p><p>Paxton's campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.</p><p>Trump campaigned with Paxton in San Antonio, Texas, on October 7, 2026, criticizing Talarico's absence from the event. Talarico's campaign explained that he was ill with the flu but expected to return to campaigning soon.</p>