Scientists Warn of Potentially Record-Strong El Nino Event

Scientists have indicated that the El Nino event expected between 2026 and 2027 could become the strongest recorded, potentially exacerbating global heat, droughts, and floods. The disappearance of anchovies from the coast of South America is being observed as a sign of this significant climatic event. Typically, these fish thrive in the nutrient-rich cold waters along the Pacific coast, but their absence this year is notable. El Nino occurs when easterly trade winds in the Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean currents to flow eastward, displacing the cold water and causing the anchovies to vanish. This phenomenon, known as El Nino de Navidad (The Christmas Child) due to its timing around Christmas, has broader implications beyond South America, affecting millions worldwide with potential droughts and floods. Scientists express concern that this year's El Nino is intensified by climate change, raising alarms for many stakeholders including scientists, governments, and aid workers. Stephanie Roe, lead climate scientist with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), stated that this 'super El Nino' highlights the intensified pressures of climate change on both human populations and natural ecosystems. Roe noted that while El Nino can cause extreme climate events independently, its occurrence on a warmer planet increases the likelihood of severe heat, drought, floods, and fires. The current El Nino is also coinciding with a significant marine heatwave, further complicating the impacts of climate change. Monitoring of the event is being conducted through satellites and buoys in the Pacific Ocean, which provide data on ocean temperatures, currents, and winds. Current indications suggest that the upcoming El Nino could lead to temperature increases of 3 degrees Celsius in the equatorial Pacific, surpassing typical rises of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Adam Scaife, professor and head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, remarked on the unprecedented intensity of the El Nino signal observed in forecasts. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has likened the situation to 'pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world.' The anticipated effects include droughts in Southeast Asia and South America, while Southern Africa may experience drought and flooding simultaneously. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for exceptional preparation and response, noting that this is the most significant mobilization in the WMO's 50-year history for delivering forecasts and services aimed at saving lives and livelihoods. While El Nino can sometimes provide beneficial rainfall to drought-stricken areas, the overall outlook remains concerning, with potential crop failures and significant economic damage projected. Economists at Citigroup estimate that a super El Nino could result in up to $7 trillion in global economic losses over five years. Julia Rizzo, Morgan Stanley’s commodities strategist for Latin America, highlighted the potential for this El Nino to disrupt key growing regions and supply chains. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the event could exacerbate food insecurity, predicting that 274 million people may face acute hunger by the end of 2027. Additionally, outbreaks of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever could arise, particularly in regions where health systems are already strained. John Nairn, WMO’s senior extreme heat adviser, pointed out that extreme heat poses a direct threat, compounding existing drought conditions and leading to various hazards. The ecological impacts are also concerning, with the loss of baitfish affecting marine food chains and resulting in increased mortality among seals, sea lions, and seabirds. Sebastian Cruz of the American Bird Conservancy reported a significant rise in seabird strandings and deaths, indicating the extensive impact of this El Nino. Furthermore, scientists warn that large El Nino events contribute to increased global temperatures, with projections suggesting that 2027 may surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.