UN Reports Current El Nino Could Be Strongest on Record

The United Nations has indicated that the current El Nino phenomenon could become the strongest recorded since monitoring began 40 years ago. This assessment is based on exceptionally warm temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that El Nino is expected to intensify and likely persist until February 2027. According to the WMO, the event is projected to reach a 'very strong' classification, increasing the risks of extreme heat, drought, and flooding, which may impact livelihoods and economies. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres remarked, 'The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.' WMO head Celeste Saulo noted that the current El Nino may exceed any previous events recorded in the past four decades. El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon occurring every two to seven years, is not caused by climate change, but it can exacerbate the effects of global warming linked to fossil fuel consumption. The WMO categorizes El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, with the current event expected to reach the highest intensity level. The phenomenon typically begins with the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to changes in global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. For instance, it often results in drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of the Amazon, while heavy rainfall may occur in East Africa and the southern United States. El Ninos usually start between March and June, peak towards the end of the year, and last approximately nine to twelve months. Saulo stated there is an exceptionally high likelihood, nearly 100%, that El Nino will continue through February 2027, marking the first time the WMO has expressed such certainty. The UN agency reported that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are already significantly above average and continue to rise. 'Subsurface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high, with some areas exceeding 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August,' Saulo added. Although El Nino is expected to peak at the end of the year, its effects may extend into 2027. Historically, global average temperatures tend to be particularly high in the year following an El Nino, with the 2023-2024 event contributing to 2024 potentially being the warmest year on record. Saulo warned that droughts, floods, and extreme heat are already causing disruptions and that these impacts will likely multiply as El Nino intensifies, potentially delivering significant challenges to communities, economies, and supply chains worldwide. Preparations are advised to protect climate-sensitive sectors.