The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a forecast indicating a nearly 100% likelihood that the current El Niño will persist through February 2027. This forecast is described as the most certain in the history of the organization. The WMO, which is the United Nations' weather and climate agency, noted that this level of certainty reflects strong agreement within its network.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, which disrupts global weather patterns. The WMO's latest forecasts suggest that this El Niño could be the strongest on record, with impacts already being observed worldwide.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres commented on the situation, stating, "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes... The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up." He highlighted the rising sea surface temperatures and the potential for extreme weather events.
Typically, El Niño events increase the global average temperature by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.2 to 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit). However, this year's event may lead to even higher temperatures, making 2026 potentially the hottest year on record. The WMO also warned that the world is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming in the coming years due to both El Niño and human-induced climate change.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, expressed concerns about the potential consequences of this El Niño, stating that its intensity could lead to unexpected and extreme weather events. He emphasized the significance of this climate phenomenon, noting, "This is probably one of the larger, if not the largest, climate events... that anybody alive is potentially ever experiencing."
As the El Niño continues to develop, some regions have already begun to experience its effects. The United States recently recorded its hottest summer, which was likely influenced by El Niño. Additionally, drought conditions have emerged in areas typically dry during El Niño, such as Sudan, where low water levels in the Nile are worsening a hunger crisis. Puerto Rico has also implemented water rationing due to dry conditions.
Guterres concluded by stating, "The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race."