A recent Suffolk University poll indicates that Republican candidates for the Senate and governorship in Iowa are facing tight races, influenced by dissatisfaction with Donald Trump, who previously won the state in three presidential elections. The poll, conducted from August 20-23 with 500 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
In the governor's race, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican businessman Zach Lahn by 4 percentage points, 48% to 44%. In the Senate race, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is ahead of Democratic state representative Josh Turek by 4 points, 45% to 41%. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted that Trump won Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024, highlighting the shift in voter sentiment.
The poll revealed that 30% of respondents indicated their primary motivation for voting in the midterm election was to express dissatisfaction with the current national political climate, surpassing those who support a specific candidate's vision (11%) and local ballot issues (16%). Additionally, 40% stated they were voting to fulfill their civic duty.
Sand's lead in the governor's race is attributed to strong support from Democrats, significant backing from independents (53% to 34%), and 9% support from Republicans, while Lahn received no Democratic support. In the Senate race, Turek has nearly unanimous support from Democrats and a narrow lead among independents (39% to 35%), along with 5% of Republican support. Hinson received support from only one Democratic respondent.
Among Trump voters from 2024 who are not supporting Hinson, common reasons cited include dissatisfaction with the Republican Party's direction and performance. Among very likely voters, Turek and Hinson are tied at 45% each.
The races are being closely monitored as potential opportunities for Democrats to regain control of the Senate, which would require holding all Democratic-held seats and flipping four Republican-held seats. Iowa has not been a primary target for Democrats, but a competitive race could help offset losses elsewhere.
Currently, Iowa is a Republican stronghold, with registered Republicans outnumbering Democrats by 200,000. Republicans hold all six congressional seats, both chambers of the state legislature, and all statewide elected offices except one. However, the state's agricultural economy has faced challenges due to trade wars and rising costs for gas and fertilizer, alongside national concerns regarding the affordability of groceries, housing, and healthcare.
Trump's favorable-unfavorable rating in Iowa is currently at 48%-49%, with 10% of Republicans rating him unfavorably and 51% of independents holding an unfavorable view. In contrast, former President Barack Obama, who won Iowa in both his presidential campaigns, has a slightly positive rating of 49%-45%. The survey also highlighted a shift in voter preferences for gathering information about political campaigns, with candidate debates and town halls being the most favored, followed by social media, local news broadcasts, and newspapers.