President Trump convened his top political advisers in the Oval Office earlier this month to discuss strategies for utilizing his super PAC’s $400 million political fund in the lead-up to the midterm elections. Republican strategists have expressed concerns regarding Trump’s low approval ratings and voter apprehension about the economy. One individual familiar with the discussions stated, "When the issues that you typically campaign on don’t move voters—or voters are upset with you about those issues—the question becomes: What do you campaign on?" Some GOP strategists advocate for focusing on specific races to emphasize the strengths of individual candidates and local issues.
However, Trump has dismissed this approach. He pointed out that House and Senate Democrats will frame their fall campaigns as a referendum on him. His advisers indicated that the poor polling results stem from the public's lack of awareness regarding many of his accomplishments, including record stock-market highs, a decline in fentanyl deaths, border security, and increased domestic manufacturing.
Trump's solution, as reported by three individuals familiar with the meeting, is to embrace the Democratic strategy of centering the campaign around himself. He has ordered a series of television advertisements that will highlight his record, aiming to create a backdrop for the numerous individual House and Senate contests. Trump requested what one person described as "environmental lift" ads—commercials that would broadly nationalize the midterms around his achievements—and suggested that the ad makers utilize his own statements as content. "Go look at the clips," he instructed his team, according to this source. "I cite accomplishments all the time."
This decision has led to an upcoming ad blitz from MAGA Inc., Trump's primary political fundraising organization, as confirmed by sources familiar with the discussions, who requested anonymity to discuss internal matters. While much of MAGA Inc.’s budget is expected to target specific House and Senate races, the organization has been assembling teams to analyze polling data, voter modeling, and message testing. "We are going to unload the guns on both chambers real soon," one source stated. Another individual noted that since Trump will inevitably influence voters' decisions, emphasizing his achievements is a logical strategy. "I think everybody does understand that the president and his agenda are on the ballot to some degree," another source remarked.
A spokesperson for MAGA Inc. stated that the group does not comment on internal discussions or plans. Olivia Wales, a White House spokesperson, affirmed Trump’s commitment to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress, stating, "President Trump is cleaning up Joe Biden’s mess. There is a great story to tell because the United States of America has never been stronger than under his leadership."
Trump’s strategy to allocate part of his campaign spending to promote himself mirrors President Biden’s decision in the fall of 2023 to launch ads highlighting his own legislative achievements as he sought to improve his approval ratings ahead of his reelection campaign. However, Trump is not on the ballot this fall, which introduces potential risks. A new strategy focusing on Trump’s accomplishments may inadvertently support Democratic efforts to frame each race around national issues, especially given Trump’s current low approval ratings. Nevertheless, Republicans may feel compelled to present their most effective communicator to voters amid challenging midterm conditions.
The political landscape is characterized by economic concerns, with voters feeling that their circumstances have not improved, despite some positive indicators. This situation is reminiscent of challenges faced by Democrats in 2010 and 2022, when the electorate attributed economic difficulties to their party following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. However, Trump’s circumstances differ in certain aspects. Polls indicate that voters are not only worried about inflation but also frustrated with Trump’s foreign policy decisions and concerned about government corruption. Before Trump’s first midterm election in 2018, the Pew Research Center found that 51 percent of Americans believed the economy was performing well, including 13 percent who rated it as excellent. By July of this year, only 22 percent felt the economy was doing well, with just 3 percent rating it as excellent. Trump’s economic approval rating was around 50 percent in 2018 public polls, but most polls this year show his approval has dropped into the 30s.
Republican political consultants have expressed concerns, both publicly and privately, about the overly optimistic tone of some of Trump’s economic messaging. Democrats are facing a familiar challenge. Rahm Emanuel, a former advisor in the Obama and Biden administrations and a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election, stated, "You’ve got to take voters from where they are to where you want to go, and the only way to do that is to not dismiss in any way what they know—and what I mean by that is, you can’t go in playing ‘It’s Christmas Time’ when that’s the last holiday they can afford. They’re going to put you on mute."
In 2010, Barack Obama dealt with a similar issue by using a "car in the ditch" metaphor to explain why the recovery following the 2008 financial crisis felt slow. However, even that approach proved ineffective, as noted by David Axelrod, a senior strategist for Obama, who said, "We sort of abandoned it because what we found was even that was offensive to people, because it felt like we were trying to blame others."