In the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are closely matched, with only two points separating the two candidates among likely voters statewide. Talarico holds a +4 point lead against Paxton among registered voters, a decrease from a six-point lead last month. In the generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead by +5 points among likely voters, while the margin narrows to +3 points among registered voters. Previously, Democratic candidates had a 3-point edge among registered voters. In the Texas governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by +4 points among likely voters, with just one point separating the two candidates among registered voters. Hinojosa had previously held a 3-point lead against Abbott among registered voters. The polling indicates significant partisan divides and reflects concerns regarding President Donald Trump and economic issues.
This Marist Poll Texas survey involved 1,196 registered voters and was conducted from October 8th to October 11th, 2026. The survey used a multi-mode design, including phone interviews, text, and online methods. The results for registered voters are statistically significant within ±4.3 percentage points, and for likely voters, within ±4.9 percentage points.