President Donald Trump has reiterated his promise to provide every adult U.S. citizen with a $5,000 check, contingent on Republicans maintaining control of the House and Senate in the upcoming November elections. A recent poll by Strength in Numbers/Verasight indicates that this condition is leading to decreased support for the proposal among voters. In a video posted to Truth Social on Saturday, Trump stated, "Republicans can do it, and Democrats can’t," attributing the funding to tariff revenue.
The poll revealed that while 53% of Americans support the $5,000 payments in general, support drops to 35% when respondents are informed that the checks depend on a Republican victory, with opposition rising to 54%. Trump justified the affordability of the plan by claiming that the U.S. is "taking in massive amounts of money through tariffs and record-setting economic success." He also warned that a Democratic victory would lead to an economic depression similar to that of 1929, contrasting it with the economic success he claims would follow a Republican win.
This marks the third direct payment proposal Trump has made during his second term, following a $5,000 "DOGE dividend" in February 2025 and a $2,000 tariff dividend in November 2025, neither of which has been distributed to taxpayers. Trump estimated the total cost of his latest plan at approximately $1 trillion, asserting it is "a very easy thing to do," citing tariffs and $21 trillion invested in the U.S. over the past 15 months.
However, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) disputes this assessment, estimating the checks would actually cost $1.2 trillion in a single year. According to Treasury data, the government collected about $167 billion in net tariff revenue in the first 11 months of fiscal 2026, which the CRFB argues cannot be used to offset the costs of the proposed checks as it is already included in deficit projections.
While Trump claimed that "only I can make you this promise," he lacks the authority to issue the checks unilaterally, as Congress controls federal spending. Legislative action would be required for the checks to be issued. Even if Republicans secure both chambers, they may not achieve the 60 Senate votes typically needed for legislation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has mentioned the possibility of using the budget reconciliation process, which requires only a simple majority, but he has not confirmed whether the necessary votes are available.
Senator Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, plans to introduce a bill after the election, while House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, R-Okla., has expressed skepticism regarding the proposal. The Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll also found that only 13% of respondents believe Trump genuinely intends to send the checks, with 62% suggesting he made the promise primarily to gain votes. Additionally, 71% of voters consider it inappropriate for a president to promise payments contingent on his party winning an election, including 53% of Republicans. Furthermore, 28% of respondents indicated that the pledge makes them less likely to vote for Republican congressional candidates, compared to 13% who said it makes them more likely.
Key details regarding the checks, such as eligibility criteria, remain unclear. Trump stated that "all adult citizens" would receive a check, while Vice President JD Vance suggested that wealthy Americans might be excluded.