Brazil's Presidential Election Features Lula and Bolsonaro's Son Amid U.S. Influence

<p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/07/09/trump-tariffs-brazil" target="_blank">Brazil</a> is set to vote on Sunday in a presidential election that may impact its relationship with President <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump</a>, potentially restore the Bolsonaro movement to power, and influence the future of the Amazon rainforest.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The election between President Luiz Inácio <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/07/trump-un-cop30-climate-summit-brazil" target="_blank">Lula da Silva</a> and Senator <a href="https://www.axios.com/2018/10/19/whatsapp-banned-bolsonaros-son-1539978039" target="_blank">Flávio Bolsonaro</a> has broader implications, serving as a test of Trump's influence in Latin America, with significant stakes for the region and global climate.</p><hr /><p><strong>The latest:</strong> Trump stated on Thursday that he is closely monitoring Brazil's election, calling it "very important," although he did not endorse any candidate.</p><p><strong>Catch up quick:</strong> The U.S. became involved in the election when Trump's administration imposed <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/16/trump-tariffs-brazil" target="_blank">25% tariffs</a> on certain Brazilian goods this summer, leading Lula to accuse Trump of "interference" in Brazil's internal matters.</p><ul><li>This dispute has become a focal point in the campaigns of both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President <a href="https://www.axios.com/2019/07/29/jair-bolsonaros-report-card-on-corruption-and-the-environment" target="_blank">Jair Bolsonaro</a>.</li><li>Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/09/11/brazil-supreme-court-bolsonaro-coup-guilty" target="_blank">27-year prison sentence</a> for plotting a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/09/02/bolsonaro-trial-alleged-coup-trump" target="_self">military coup</a> to overturn Brazil's 2022 election results and is under <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-remain-under-house-arrest-2026-07-03/" target="_blank">house arrest</a> due to health issues.</li></ul><p><strong>Context:</strong> Tensions escalated in 2025 when the Trump administration targeted Brazilian Supreme Court Justice <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/07/19/bolsonaro-judge-visa-trump-rubio-brazil" target="_blank">Alexandre de Moraes</a>, who oversaw the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro.</p><ul><li>The U.S. revoked his visa and imposed sanctions, which were later lifted.</li></ul><p><strong>State of play:</strong> Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running, but Flávio Bolsonaro has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/flavio-bolsonaro-launches-brazil-presidential-campaign-touts-support-milei-2026-07-25/" target="_blank">committed</a> to continuing his father's political legacy.</p><ul><li>This positions the heir to a right-wing populist movement against a left-wing president seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive term.</li><li>A candidate <a href="https://www.braziloffice.org/en/observatory-1" target="_blank">must secure</a> more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a runoff.</li><li>Recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-flavio-bolsonaro-still-tied-presidential-runoff-scenario-atlas-poll-2026-09-29/" target="_blank">polls</a> indicate that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are closely matched in a potential runoff.</li></ul><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> Approximately <a href="https://rainforestfoundation.org/our-work/where-we-work/brazil/" target="_blank">60%</a> of the Amazon rainforest is located in Brazil, which plays a crucial role in carbon storage and climate regulation, giving the next president significant influence over an ecosystem with global implications.</p><ul><li>Deforestation in the Amazon has <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/09/27/lula-s-mixed-environmental-record-has-brought-less-deforestation-but-more-oil_6758014_114.html" target="_blank">decreased</a> by nearly half since Lula's return to office, though his environmental record is complicated by support for increased oil development.</li><li>Flávio Bolsonaro has advocated for relaxing environmental regulations and expressed skepticism about climate change.</li><li>The election outcome could determine whether Brazil maintains its forest protections while expanding fossil fuel production.</li></ul><p><strong>Lula's pitch:</strong> The 80-year-old president is focusing on his economic and social policies, including state-led national development, income redistribution, and welfare programs.</p><p><strong>Bolsonaro's pitch:</strong> The 45-year-old lawyer and senator is promoting conservative social policies, tax cuts, and a tougher stance on crime.</p><ul><li>He has cited <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/us-argentina-bailout-bessent" target="_blank">Argentina</a> as a model for enhancing trade relations with <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/09/24/trump-milei-us-argentina" target="_blank">the U.S.</a>, and appeared with libertarian President <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/20/argentina-vote-milei-massa-presidential-runoff-election" target="_blank">Javier Milei</a> at a political event in July.</li><li>Flávio Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazilian-senator-bolsonaro-touts-trump-meeting-white-house-2026-05-26/" target="_blank">met</a> with Trump in May and stated that Brazil would join Trump's "<a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/07/trump-shield-americas-summit-noem-envoy" target="_blank">Shield of the Americas</a>" initiative if he wins, which includes Argentina and El Salvador.</li><li>He has also <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260319-brazil-presidential-hopeful-flavio-bolsonaro-praises-bukele" target="_blank">praised</a> El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele's security measures as a model for Brazil.</li></ul><p><strong>What's next:</strong> Brazil will hold its election on Sunday. If no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff on October 25.</p>