BEIRUT — The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. has historically been based on the assumption that the U.S. would provide military support if the kingdom were attacked. However, recent events have raised questions about the reliability of this security commitment. In September, Iran-aligned Yemeni rebels advanced along Yemen’s coast, threatening Saudi Arabia’s access to the Red Sea. The Trump administration declined to intervene, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek new alliances.
In response to regional tensions, Saudi Arabia has intensified its military diplomacy, announcing a 15-nation maritime alliance in July aimed at protecting shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandab strait. This strait, linking the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, has become a focal point in the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia has entered into the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, a security pact with Turkey and Pakistan, which states that an attack on any of the three nations would be considered an attack on all. Recently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with the United Arab Emirates’ vice president, marking a thaw in relations following tensions over Yemen.
Reports also suggest potential cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding the Houthis, a significant development given their lack of formal diplomatic relations. The current geopolitical climate is challenging for Saudi Arabia, as the U.S.-Iran standoff has disrupted its main oil export channel, leading to a 25% contraction in oil activities and a nearly 5% decrease in GDP from April to June.
This economic downturn has necessitated cuts to Vision 2030, the crown prince’s initiative to transform the Saudi economy. The Houthis, who have been engaged in a civil war with Saudi Arabia since 2015, escalated their attacks following a Saudi airstrike in July on the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. The Houthis subsequently announced a blockade against Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.
In September, they captured coastal cities in Yemen, further complicating the situation for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom had previously sought U.S. assistance, especially after signing a strategic defense agreement with the U.S. and being designated a major non-NATO ally. However, U.S. support has been inconsistent, with President Trump indicating a lack of direct military involvement.
European nations, including France and the U.K., have offered defensive assistance to Saudi Arabia, while Greece operates U.S.-made missile batteries in the kingdom. Observers note that Saudi Arabia is preparing for a ground offensive to counter the Houthis, likely relying on Yemeni government fighters for ground support.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding U.S. involvement, Saudi leaders are eager for a signal of American support. They hope for reassurance that the U.S. will back them in any future conflicts, even if direct military engagement is not anticipated.