Emerson College Poll Shows Sen. Markey Leading Rep. Moulton in Massachusetts Democratic Primary

The final Emerson College Polling survey of the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary indicates that incumbent Senator Ed Markey is leading Representative Seth Moulton with 60% support compared to Moulton's 33%, while 7% of voters remain undecided. This marks an increase in Moulton's support from 32% to 33% since the May Emerson poll, whereas Markey's support has risen significantly by 23 points, from 37% to 60%. When factoring in undecided voters, Markey's lead expands to 30 points, with 65% to Moulton's 35%. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that if these trends continue, the race may reflect Markey's previous campaign strategy in 2020, where he shifted from trailing by 16 points in May to leading by 12 points in August, ultimately winning by 11 points. The May poll highlighted that demographic groups favoring Markey, particularly women and younger voters, were among the most undecided. As of now, women support Markey by 28 points (64% to 36%), and voters under 40 support him by 32 points (66% to 34%). Moulton's strongest support comes from voters over 70, where he has 38% but still trails Markey by 24 points. Kimball commented that despite Moulton's focus on Markey's age during the campaign, younger voters appear to favor Markey, indicating that the anticipated generational divide did not materialize as Moulton expected. The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted from August 28-29, 2026, with a sample size of 550 likely Democratic Primary voters and a credibility interval of +/- 4.1 percent. It is important to note that demographic subsets may carry higher credibility intervals due to reduced sample sizes. The survey's methodology included contacting a probability-based panel of voters and matching responses to the Aristotle voter file. The data was weighted according to U.S. Census parameters and voter file data, and the survey was conducted in English.