South Carolina has been designated as the first primary state for the 2028 presidential election by the Democratic National Committee (DNC), a decision made to prioritize diversity in early voting states. This change could potentially benefit former Vice President Kamala Harris if she decides to run for president again. The state's electorate, which is predominantly African American, played a crucial role in Joe Biden's 2020 campaign, and it may provide Harris with an opportunity to establish herself as a leading candidate before other states vote.
Kaivan Shroff, a former delegate for Harris, expressed that this development could significantly aid her campaign, especially in contrast to a scenario where less diverse states like Iowa were first. Harris hinted at a possible presidential bid during a speech at the National Action Network convention in April.
However, she is expected to face competition from other prominent Black Democrats, including Maryland Governor Wes Moore and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, both of whom have not served in the Biden administration. Shroff noted that while Harris has a national campaign infrastructure, Moore has publicly stated he is not running, and his political record may not be strong enough for a presidential bid.
The DNC's decision to place South Carolina first was influenced by the need to recognize the importance of Black voters within the Democratic coalition, especially following recent Supreme Court decisions affecting majority-minority districts. Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville emphasized the significance of South Carolina's position in the primary calendar.
Despite the advantages, Harris may encounter challenges among younger voters and those seeking a departure from the Biden administration's policies. Douglas Wilson, a former campaign director, pointed out that generational dynamics could play a role in the race, particularly if Moore enters the contest. Additionally, Harris's association with the Biden administration's policies, especially regarding international issues, may affect her appeal to progressive voters.
The endorsement of influential figures like Representative Jim Clyburn could also be pivotal for any candidate in the 2028 race, as he played a key role in Biden's 2020 victory in South Carolina. Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist, cautioned against making early predictions about Harris's chances in the state, suggesting that her past performance in elections should be considered in evaluating her potential success.