In mid-May, U.S. negotiators faced challenges in determining whether Iranian negotiators represented the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during discussions aimed at ending the war. To address this, officials from the Trump administration contacted Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan region in Iraq, who had established trust with both U.S. and IRGC leaders. This information was shared by three sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
The U.S. and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding, but it quickly fell apart. The Trump administration's ongoing challenge in negotiations is to ensure they are communicating with the individuals who hold actual power in Iran, which requires finding trusted mediators.
The conflict has altered Iran's leadership dynamics, particularly following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which has increased the IRGC's influence over national security and foreign policy decisions. Uncertainty regarding the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has further empowered IRGC commanders.
After a ceasefire in early April and subsequent negotiations, the White House believed a deal was close, but Iran delayed its response. U.S. negotiators suspected that Iranian officials were not authorized to finalize an agreement and were being overruled by the IRGC.
Recognizing the need for a backchannel, then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard contacted Barzani around May 10. Gabbard indicated that the administration sought to connect with IRGC commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi. Barzani, who is fluent in Farsi and has relationships with senior Iranian officials, agreed to assist.
Following their conversation, Barzani reached out to the IRGC, emphasizing the need to speak directly with Gen. Vahidi. An IRGC official met with Barzani in Erbil on May 14, where Vahidi expressed support for the Iranian negotiators and a preference for resolving the crisis through negotiations.
After receiving this response, the Trump administration proposed that Barzani host secret talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators in Erbil. However, concerns about security and potential threats from Israeli intelligence led the Iranians to hesitate, and the meeting did not occur.
Currently, Pakistani and Qatari mediators are still attempting to facilitate communication between the U.S. and Iran, but progress remains limited. Some sources suggest that the Pakistanis may be providing overly optimistic assessments of the situation.
Barzani has recently communicated with the White House, offering to assist in restarting negotiations, though experts note that the core issue lies in Iran's policies, which are unlikely to change soon.