A poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in partnership with the Los Angeles Times indicates that Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton in California's gubernatorial race by 18 percentage points, with Becerra at 55% and Hilton at 37% among likely voters. This represents a narrowing of the gap from a previous lead of 25 points for Becerra.
The survey, conducted from August 3-9 with 2,310 likely voters, suggests that while Hilton has made some progress, he faces challenges in a state where Democrats have historically dominated elections. Becerra's support among Democrats stands at 88%, while Hilton has the backing of 91% of Republicans. However, Becerra also leads among independent voters, 58% to 30%.
Political experts indicate that Hilton would need to significantly increase his appeal among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make the race competitive. The poll also reveals that Becerra has a more favorable image, with 49% of voters viewing him positively compared to 39% for Hilton. Geographically, Becerra holds advantages in major urban areas, while Hilton performs better in conservative regions of the state.