Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has surpassed Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the latest odds on the prediction market platform Polymarket for the 2028 presidential election. This shift has led to increased speculation regarding Ocasio-Cortez's potential candidacy for the Democratic nomination.
Both Ocasio-Cortez and Rubio have been mentioned as possible candidates for their respective parties, although they are currently focusing on the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Ocasio-Cortez's rise in the prediction markets coincides with growing speculation about her presidential ambitions. Vice President JD Vance stated in June that he believes Ocasio-Cortez will be a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2028.
“I think it’s got to be AOC. I know that’s probably conventional wisdom,” Vance remarked during an interview. Ocasio-Cortez has not dismissed the idea of a presidential run but has emphasized her current focus on the midterm elections. “I’m focused on winning the midterms. I’m running for Congress right now,” she stated in a recent interview.
While she has not ruled out a presidential campaign, she acknowledged the support she has received. Other Democrats being considered for the 2028 nomination include Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Kamala Harris, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Recent polling indicates Ocasio-Cortez as a strong contender, with a poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters showing 22% support for her, narrowly ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21%. However, RealClearPolitics's polling aggregate shows Harris leading the Democratic field by 12 points, highlighting the uncertainty in the early stages of the 2028 race.
On the Republican side, Vance and Rubio are frequently mentioned as potential candidates. A report from the Washington Post suggested that former President Donald Trump indicated a preference for Vance, although Trump later clarified that he was not endorsing anyone at this time. Trump has mentioned the possibility of a Vance-Rubio ticket but has not formally endorsed either candidate. As speculation about the 2028 election continues, party leaders are primarily focused on the upcoming midterm elections.