Pollsters underestimated the outcome of the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary held on August 12, 2026, where David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by half a percentage point. Prior to the primary, two polls indicated Hong was leading by approximately 20 points. However, the dynamics of the race shifted rapidly, with Crowley gaining support in the final days leading up to the election.
In the week before the primary, Crowley's own pollster had him trailing by nearly 20 points. The final month of the campaign was marked by significant changes, including the withdrawal of two candidates amid scandals and Crowley's re-entry into the race after initially exiting. The last week was characterized by Hong's struggle to address past statements, which may have influenced voter perceptions.
Analysts suggest that late-deciding voters gravitated towards Crowley, aided by his campaigning alongside Democratic Governor Tony Evers. David Axelrod, a former strategist for President Obama, noted that polling often reflects a snapshot in time and many polls were conducted too early to capture the race's momentum. Ultimately, Hong received around 39% of the vote, while Crowley's support surged from approximately 20% to nearly 40% in a short span.
The open primary format in Wisconsin complicated polling efforts, as it allowed voters to participate in either party's primary regardless of their registration, making it challenging to predict voter turnout. Some strategists speculated that Republican voters may have crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary to influence the outcome against Hong. Additionally, Hong's campaign lacked significant advertising in the final days, which may have contributed to her defeat.