Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is receiving support from some House Democrats as he seeks to retain his seat in a competitive district. Kamala Harris won Lawler's district in the 2024 election, but some Democrats are hesitant to invest heavily in efforts to unseat him due to his bipartisan reputation and electoral acumen.
Currently, Republicans are significantly outspending Democrats in ad reservations in New York's 17th District, with a ratio of over 40 to 1, according to AdImpact. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, has reserved $6.7 million for advertising in the district, while Lawler's campaign has allocated $2.8 million and an additional $2.1 million comes from the Americans for Open Government group. In contrast, the only Democratic group with ad reservations in the district is House Majority Forward, which has reserved $270,000.
Democrats argue that the high costs of the New York media market make early ad reservations less effective compared to other states. Despite this, some Democratic leaders believe that Lawler's seat is a prime opportunity for flipping, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) actively supporting Cait Conley as their candidate.
Lawler's district is considered crucial for determining control of the House, with Democrats needing to gain three seats to regain the majority. The district is noted for its Democratic lean, having been won by Harris by a narrow margin in 2024.
There are concerns among some Democrats about the potential for Lawler to receive less opposition as Election Day approaches, despite previous tensions between him and Democratic leadership. A former House Republican expressed doubt that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries would refrain from campaigning against Lawler, citing past confrontations.
In summary, while Lawler has some support from Democrats, he remains a target as they aim to secure a majority in the House.