In February 2025, a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy resulted in a tense exchange, with Trump stating, "Your country is in big trouble. You’re not winning," and suggesting Ukraine lacked leverage in the conflict. Following this, the U.S. briefly suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while Russia made incremental gains on the battlefield. Despite this, Ukraine's military prepared a significant operation that involved drone strikes against Russian bombers, leading to damage worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Since then, Ukraine has intensified its military operations, targeting Russian infrastructure and military assets. Notably, drone strikes have reached as far as St. Petersburg, prompting Russian authorities to reduce military parades due to security concerns. In the first half of 2026, the United Nations reported 1,396 civilian deaths in Ukraine, while Russia reported 250. A recent strike on an oil refinery in Russia resulted in 13 fatalities.
Experts suggest that Ukraine's strategy aims to challenge the perception that Russia can sustain the conflict without significant consequences. Jack Watling from the RUSI think tank noted that the effectiveness of Ukraine's strikes depends on their ability to inflict substantial pain on Russia, which is influenced by external factors, including European financial support.
Data from ACLED indicates that Ukraine's long-range attacks have increased significantly, with three times as many strikes in July compared to January. The targets of these strikes include oil infrastructure, defense manufacturing, and retail warehouses, aimed at disrupting Russian revenue and logistics. Ukraine's military has also focused on making Crimea less usable for Russian operations.
While some strikes may not have resulted in significant damage, Ukraine benefits from access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite communications, allowing for real-time drone operations. However, Russia is developing its own satellite communication system and jamming technologies to counter this advantage.
The meeting with Trump served as a wake-up call for Ukraine, prompting an increase in domestic weapon production to meet military needs, although challenges remain in scaling production to the required levels.