Secretary of State Marco Rubio has overtaken Vice President JD Vance in predictions for the 2028 presidential election, according to data from Kalshi. A year ago, Rubio trailed Vance by 25 points, but he is now favored to win the general election with a 16% chance compared to Vance's 15%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in third place with 11%.
Rubio, 55, and Vance, 41, have been viewed as potential successors to President Donald Trump, who has not publicly endorsed either candidate. Reports indicate that Trump has privately favored Vance but has kept his options open. Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire shows Vance's lead over Rubio has decreased from 46 points in February to just 10 points in July among GOP primary voters.
Vance has faced criticism from some factions within the party, particularly following a recent interview with podcaster Joe Rogan. His supporters have dismissed the backlash as a coordinated attack, while Rubio's rise in the polls suggests Vance may be encountering significant challenges. Notably, GOP donor Ken Griffin has indicated he would support Rubio if he runs in 2028. Reports also suggest tensions within the White House regarding Vance's performance and political future, with Trump expressing concerns about Vance's ability to win elections without his backing.