A national NBC News poll indicates that Democrats hold a 5-point lead over Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections, with 49% of registered voters preferring Democratic control of Congress compared to 44% for Republicans. The poll, conducted by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit, surveyed 2,400 registered voters from May 29 to June 7, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Independents lean towards Democrats by a 12-point margin, and majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under 50, and those with a college degree also favor Democrats. In contrast, Republicans maintain an advantage among men, white voters, and those without a college education.
The Democratic lead is consistent with a previous NBC News poll from March, which showed a 6-point advantage for Democrats. Republican pollster Bill McInturff noted that while these numbers are challenging for Republicans, they are not catastrophic, as Democrats need to net only three seats to gain control of the House.
However, Democrats face a more difficult challenge in the Senate, needing to win four seats in states that Trump won by significant margins in 2024. The poll also reveals that Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42% among registered voters, the lowest of his second term, with significant disapproval from independent voters and younger demographics.
Voter sentiment regarding the direction of the country is largely pessimistic, with 56% believing America's best years are behind it. Additionally, 80% of voters feel that achieving the American Dream is more difficult now than it was a generation ago. Confidence in political institutions is low, with half of voters expressing little to no confidence in the federal government and 58% feeling the same about Congress.