Northern Nigeria is experiencing an increase in ISIS insurgency activities, prompting attention from Washington. The conflict, which began 13 years ago, has evolved significantly due to counterterrorism efforts by the Nigerian government, ideological splits among jihadist groups, and international interventions. Initially, ISIS and other terrorist groups were on the defensive, but recent changes in tactics have allowed them to regain momentum, making Nigeria a critical front in the Global War on Terror.
Alexander Palmer, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that ISIS in Nigeria is becoming more active and poses a growing threat to military targets, particularly through a campaign named "Camp Holocaust."
The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which split from Boko Haram in 2016, has emerged as the main jihadist threat in northern Nigeria. Although the Nigerian military had previously contained ISWAP through its "Super Camp" strategy, analysts believe that ISWAP has adapted its tactics, leading to recent escalations in violence, including attacks on military facilities and the killing of Nigerian Brigadier General Oseni Braimah.
ISWAP has modified its approach by gathering larger forces for attacks, conducting nighttime strikes, and utilizing drones, with reports suggesting that ISIS trainers from the Middle East have been involved in training ISWAP fighters.
The insurgency's complexity is compounded by Nigeria's overstretched military resources, as it faces multiple forms of violence and cross-border issues. Analysts argue that counterinsurgency efforts are challenging and require more than just military action; they necessitate building ties with local communities and addressing the underlying factors that support insurgency.
Despite the U.S. historically viewing the violence in northern Nigeria as less of a core interest compared to other regions, recent shifts in U.S. counterterrorism strategy have led to increased attention on ISWAP's actions, particularly concerning atrocities against Christians. U.S. support has included drone strikes, training, and intelligence sharing, although experts caution that these measures alone will not resolve the insurgency.