The Social Security trustees have revised their long-term projections for the national fertility rate, indicating a decline that may affect the program's financial health. In their annual report released on June 11, 2026, the trustees projected the fertility rate to settle at 1.75 over the next 25 years, down from a previous estimate of 1.9. Currently, the fertility rate stands at 1.6, the lowest in a century, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office have even lower projections, estimating rates of 1.61 and 1.53, respectively, by 2045. Romina Boccia from the Cato Institute expressed concerns that the trustees' higher projections may create an illusion of increased revenues for Social Security, potentially underestimating the program's shortfall.
The report indicated that the projected 75-year solvency gap for Social Security has increased from 3.82% to 4.42% of taxable payroll, with half of this deterioration attributed to lower fertility rates. Experts suggest that a declining fertility rate could lead to fewer workers in the future, impacting tax revenue and potentially increasing budget deficits.
Mark Warshawsky from the American Enterprise Institute noted that lower fertility rates could result in slower economic growth and revenue growth for the federal government. Lyman Stone from the Institute for Family Studies highlighted that declining marriage rates are a significant factor in the decrease of fertility, attributing this trend to changes in social dynamics influenced by technology.
The report also projected that the Social Security retirement trust fund will be exhausted by 2032, with the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund expected to cover only 78% of scheduled benefits at that time. Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano emphasized the need for lawmakers to ensure the trust funds remain stable for future generations.