During NATO talks in late May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the current status of the alliance is ineffective, noting a future reduction in U.S. troop presence in Europe. He expressed strong support for NATO, emphasizing its importance for U.S. national security. In response to the war in Ukraine and concerns about U.S. reliability, European governments have increased defense spending, with military expenditure reaching $864 billion in 2025, a 14% rise from the previous year. Germany has seen a 24% increase in its defense budget.
The Trump administration is considering the deployment of additional U.S. nuclear-capable bombers and possibly more nuclear weapons in Europe, particularly in countries like Poland and the Baltic states. While a final decision has not been made, some Polish politicians have suggested the country may seek its own nuclear weapons.
The potential increase in U.S. nuclear assets in Europe may be viewed as an extension of NATO's existing policy, which allows allies to carry U.S. nuclear weapons on their aircraft, a practice that has been in place since the 1950s. However, the geopolitical landscape has changed since then, and while the U.S. aims to deter Russian aggression, it also seeks to encourage European nations to take responsibility for their own defense.
Concerns have been raised that enhancing U.S. security guarantees could diminish European incentives to continue increasing their military capabilities, especially in light of economic challenges. Critics suggest that reliance on nuclear assurances may lead to a return to dependency rather than fostering independent defense efforts.