TOPSHAM, Maine — In 2014, Republican Senator Susan Collins won 39% of Maine’s Democratic voters, according to exit polls. In 2020, she won 13%, which was sufficient to retain her seat in a state that President Donald Trump lost that same year. A recent Suffolk University poll indicates her support among Democrats has dropped to just 5%.
Outside early-voting sites last week, some Democratic-leaning voters who previously supported Collins expressed their support for the Democrat in the race, former state Senator Troy Jackson.
Barbara Swartzlander, a Democrat who voted for Collins in 2020, stated that she cast her ballot for Jackson this year in Scarborough, a suburb of Portland where Collins had previously outperformed Trump. Swartzlander mentioned that Jackson “would bring some new energy” and expressed dissatisfaction with Collins's vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which contributed to the 2022 Dobbs decision that ended the constitutional right to an abortion.
Scott Burns, a voter in his mid-70s, also indicated he had supported Collins in the past but would likely support Jackson this year, citing a lack of action from Collins to oppose the president. “I don’t like what’s going on in the government, and I can’t see any way to continue to enable the president,” Burns said.
Collins, who is seeking a sixth term, faces challenges amid widespread frustration with Trump and the Republican Party, as well as perceptions of her unwillingness to oppose unpopular policies. This dissatisfaction could jeopardize her support among crossover voters in a state that typically leans Democratic in presidential elections.
A recent Washington Post poll revealed that 70% of voters have supported Collins at least once during her 30-year career, but the current question is how many will do so again.
Rick Crawford, a Topsham Democrat, noted that he had supported Collins in most elections but would be voting differently this year due to the current political climate.
Collins has maintained a reputation for bipartisanship, emphasizing federal funding she has secured for Maine as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and highlighting instances where she has diverged from Trump. In two recent debates, she discussed her opposition to the president regarding the war with Iran and tariffs on Canadian exports, with one more debate scheduled for Thursday night.
However, some former supporters are skeptical. Debbie Conley, an independent voter from Gorham who has voted for Collins before, expressed her uncertainty this year, stating, “I do like that she’s never missed a vote, but I think it’s time for a change.”
Despite the challenges, Collins's supporters argue that she remains popular in Maine’s conservative rural regions. Dean Cray, a Republican former state representative, stated that Collins is “doing really, really well in our area,” but acknowledged that Trump’s unpopularity could affect turnout even in Republican strongholds.
Collins has a key asset in her campaign manager, Steve Abbott, who is recognized for his effective constituent services, particularly in rural areas. A Republican strategist referred to Abbott as Collins's “secret weapon,” while even some Democrats acknowledged his strategic skills.
Collins's campaign and the Republican Party are focusing on increasing turnout in rural Maine, with efforts including grassroots outreach and canvassing. Jack Ducharme, a Republican state representative, emphasized the importance of mobilizing Republican voters in areas where they have historically been outnumbered.
However, Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College, expressed concerns that the national political environment and Trump’s influence may hinder Collins's ability to achieve the necessary rural turnout. “I think for a lot of rural Mainers, there is not a tremendous amount of enthusiasm to turn out. I would be surprised if Abbott could turn that thing around,” Shea said.