President Trump has attributed potential challenges in the Texas Senate race to Senator John Cornyn and Karl Rove, stating they are "doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton" to win. Trump made these comments on Truth Social, suggesting that if Paxton loses, it would be due to the actions of "WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove." Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Trump won the state by 14 points in the previous election cycle.
On the same day, FEC campaign finance reports indicated that Elon Musk has contributed $158 million to the Senate GOP's main super PAC to support Paxton. Following each of Musk's donations, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) transferred an equal amount to a Texas PAC focused on electing Paxton.
A recent poll indicated that Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Paxton, with 50% to 47%. Republican leaders had warned Trump that if Paxton won the primary against Cornyn, it could cost the party significantly to retain the Senate seat. This concern appears to be validated, as over $500 million in advertising has already been spent in the Texas Senate race, according to AdImpact.
Cornyn remarked to Semafor in early October about the need for caution in high-stakes races, following the leak of audio from a Paxton event in Washington, D.C. Talarico, who has been actively campaigning since August, raised $64 million in the third quarter from a large base of small donors, with 97% of contributions being under $100. In contrast, Paxton raised $18 million during the same period. Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) expressed surprise at Talarico's fundraising success, stating, "I don't even know how you raised $64 million in a quarter. I mean, that's a number that's mind-blowing."