<p>The Trump administration has offered Alexander Lukashenko an end to international isolation: In return for releasing hundreds of political prisoners, Belarus is receiving increased sanctions relief. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus, a former Soviet republic bordering Russia and Ukraine, since 1994.</p>
<p>Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus’s opposition leader in exile, welcomes the negotiations. Her husband was among those freed. However, she warns that this humanitarian engagement could strengthen Lukashenko’s regime.</p>
<p>“We are grateful for this humanitarian track,” Tsikhanouskaya said in an interview. Over “the last year, more than 500 people have been released from Belarusian prisons, including my husband and many people who were about to die in the prisons. But do not transform the humanitarian track into a political one. Do not start recognizing Lukashenko as a political leader.”</p>
<p>“Please, don’t normalize the situation in Belarus,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “This is our message to our American partners. You have enough power to release all political prisoners, so stay in the frame of this humanitarian track, and that’s it.”</p>
<p>Tsikhanouskaya entered politics in 2020 after the authorities jailed her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who had planned to challenge Lukashenko for the presidency. She ran in his place and became the principal opposition candidate. Lukashenko’s disputed claim of victory triggered mass protests, which his security forces violently suppressed. She fled to Lithuania and has since led the democratic opposition abroad. Her husband remained imprisoned until June 2025.</p>
<p>“For Lukashenko, it’s extremely important to show that, ‘Look, I’m out of isolation, I’m talking to Americans,’ and through this American humanitarian track, he wants to legitimize himself,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “He’s trying to advocate in Europe that, ‘Look, I’m talking to Americans, you have to talk to me.’”</p>
<p>John Coale, President Donald Trump’s envoy for Belarus, has secured successive releases through meetings with Lukashenko. In March, Belarus freed 250 prisoners as the United States agreed to ease financial sanctions and remove remaining restrictions on major Belarusian potash companies. Potash, used in fertilizer, is an important source of export revenue. A September agreement secured another 25 releases in exchange for Washington agreeing to lift sanctions on two companies. Lukashenko pardoned 15 more prisoners later that month. Yet Viasna, the Belarusian human rights organization, counted 876 political prisoners still in detention at September’s end.</p>
<p>Lukashenko has used prisoner releases to ask for concessions from the West before. An opening in 2008 ended with a crackdown after the 2010 presidential election. Another brought European sanctions relief in 2016, only to collapse when his government violently suppressed the protests of 2020. Each thaw thus gave Western governments reason to hope while nothing fundamentally changed.</p>
<p>Lukashenko has, at times, taken positions that diverged from Moscow’s. He withheld formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea for years and has kept Belarus out of direct combat in Ukraine. Those decisions have helped him present himself as a restraining influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin. They have also encouraged those who argue that greater engagement with Belarus could see Lukashenko loosen his ties with Moscow.</p>
<p>But these aspirations are delusional. Lukashenko has chosen his side. He allowed Russian forces to invade Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and his government continues to provide military infrastructure and industrial support to the Kremlin. This includes hosting Russian nuclear weapons and letting migrants amass at European borders. His engagement with Washington allows him to seek the benefits of better relations with the West while preserving the Russian alliance that sustains his rule.</p>
<p>“The fact that Belarusian troops, Belarusian people, and the Belarusian army is not participating in the war is not the merit of Lukashenko,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “This is because of the anti-war mood of the Belarusian people. The narrative that Putin is putting pressure on Lukashenko, Lukashenko is resisting — it’s bulls***. … The war was a blessing for Lukashenko, for the economy, for his personal enrichment. … Lukashenko will serve Russia’s interests, and nothing will change.”</p>
<p>Russia’s war gives Lukashenko an incentive to hedge. But his capacity to exercise independence will depend heavily on how that war ends. A stronger Putin would be less likely to tolerate Belarusian departures from Russian interests. For Belarus’s opposition, the risks are real. A weakened Russia could create an opportunity for political change, but a Russian victory would reinforce the power that helps sustain Lukashenko’s rule.</p>
<p>“If Russia wins this war and Lukashenko will be on the side of the winner, we can forget about free and democratic Belarus for many, many years ahead,” Tsikhanouskaya said.</p>
<p>Tsikhanouskaya wants Coale to continue negotiating. Last week, Trump announced Coale’s selection as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, giving him a broader remit beyond Belarus. Still, she worries that the expanded role could divert his attention while hundreds remain imprisoned.</p>
<p>“It’s not an easy task, you know, to talk to dictators. … Coale understands that it’s not just a number of people released. It’s people’s lives,” she said. “Of course, we’re afraid that he might lose focus on Belarus. But I hope that he’s already infected with Belarusiness … on the personal level and he wants to finish the work in Belarus.”</p>