As Israelis prepare to vote on October 27, African governments from Pretoria to Rabat are considering the implications of the election results for their foreign and domestic policies. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has highlighted significant differences in responses across the continent, with some governments pursuing diplomatic measures against Israel while others maintain commercial and security ties.
Recent polling indicates a competitive race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads, and a bloc of Jewish-led opposition parties. Neither is projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, suggesting a prolonged period of coalition negotiations post-election.
The next government's stance on Gaza and the Palestinian issue may impact Israel's efforts to maintain and expand its partnerships in Africa. Israel's relationships on the continent are influenced by various factors, including security needs, commercial interests, and longstanding bilateral partnerships.
Since the onset of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, South Africa has emerged as a prominent critic of Israel in Africa, filing a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for alleged violations of the 1948 Genocide Convention, which Israel denies. In November 2023, South Africa's National Assembly passed a motion urging the government to close the Israeli embassy and suspend diplomatic relations, highlighting political opposition to Israel's military actions.
Conversely, some African nations have opted to maintain relations with Israel, reflecting their national priorities. For example, Morocco restored relations with Israel in 2020 under a US-backed agreement, continuing to pursue closer ties despite public protests.
On September 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita met in New York, reaffirming plans to enhance diplomatic relations, including upgrading missions to embassies and appointing ambassadors. They also committed to finalizing investment protection and double taxation agreements by the end of the year, expanding flight options, and arranging reciprocal high-level visits.
Idowu Johnson, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Ibadan, noted that Africa's diversity complicates predictions regarding responses to Israel's election. He emphasized that the election's outcome could significantly influence Africa's cooperation with Israel in various sectors, including agriculture, trade, security, and technology.
Israel's relationship with the African Union (AU) also illustrates these divisions. In 2021, the AU Commission chairperson accredited Israel's representative, leading to objections from member states. The AU Assembly established a committee in February 2022 to consult on Israel’s observer status, with the dispute continuing into 2023 as the AU moved to suspend Israel’s accreditation.
Security cooperation has been a key aspect of Israel's relationships with some African governments, with Israeli companies pursuing defense contracts and training. However, the nature of these relationships varies by country. For instance, the Democratic Republic of the Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi visited Israel in late August 2023 to discuss deepening cooperation across several sectors.
Public opposition to Israel's actions, particularly regarding the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, has also influenced diplomatic relations. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated that Somalia would not accept Israeli presence in the country, indicating significant public sentiment against Israel's actions.
Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an Africa analyst, pointed out that public opposition can limit governments' ability to maintain ties with Israel, especially when such ties are perceived to challenge principles of sovereignty. He noted that the next Israeli government’s approach could either enhance cooperation in certain regions or exacerbate legitimacy issues if it continues policies associated with the Gaza conflict.
Trade and development cooperation represent another avenue for Israel to sustain relationships in Africa. Israeli firms have sought partnerships in agriculture, irrigation, health, and technology, which can provide practical benefits to African governments. For example, Israel opened a resident embassy in Zambia in August 2023, aiming to strengthen bilateral ties in various sectors.
Professor Iwebunor Okwechime highlighted the historical context of South Africa's stance towards Israel, tracing it back to the apartheid era. He emphasized that African governments face the challenge of balancing security and commercial interests with public opposition and commitments to Palestinian rights. The upcoming Israeli election will test whether a new government can alleviate diplomatic tensions in Africa without fundamentally altering the policies that have contributed to them.