US President Donald Trump's recent deal to purchase diesel from Russia has raised concerns among Ukraine and its allies. The deal includes a temporary easing of US sanctions against Moscow, which many Ukrainians and Europeans perceive as a betrayal by their US ally.
President Trump announced the diesel deal over the weekend, followed by a proposed "energy ceasefire" between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian officials stated that they were not consulted about this idea but expressed willingness to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocated.
Security expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University Munich commented that the developments indicate Trump prioritizes domestic US politics and relations with Russia over support for Ukraine. He suggested that Trump aims to influence the outcome of the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3 through this agreement.
The midterm elections will see all House of Representatives seats and a portion of Senate seats contested. Polls indicate that Trump's Republican Party may lose its majority in the House, and possibly in the Senate as well. Voter dissatisfaction with high fuel prices may lead Trump to believe that Russian diesel shipments could help lower prices in the US.
However, observers have expressed skepticism regarding the potential impact of Russian diesel on US fuel prices. Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne noted that the volume of diesel involved is too small to affect prices significantly, stating that planned shipments would not meet US diesel demand for even a single day.
Critics in Kyiv and EU countries argue that revenue from diesel sales will finance Russia's military actions against Ukraine. Masala believes that the agreement will not yield any significant military advantages for Russia, highlighting that previous sanctions suspensions have not led to effective military strategies in the Donbas region.
Concerns in Kyiv also include US threats to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine and halt the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program unless Ukraine ceases attacks on Russian oil refineries. Masala warned that a US decision to stop intelligence sharing could have severe consequences for Ukraine, although European intelligence, particularly from France, could help mitigate the impact.
Experts note that Ukraine has broad support among both Democrats and Republicans in the US, as evidenced by the bipartisan passage of the "Lindsey Graham Act" this summer, which tightened sanctions against Russia. Signed by Trump in September, the act provides the president with various tools to impose sanctions on Russian officials and financial institutions.
Former US diplomat Daniel Fried mentioned that while Trump may resist, political pressures after the midterms could lead the administration to seek an end to the war using available tools. He emphasized that the "Lindsey Graham Act" and the 2022 law banning US imports of Russian oil create significant barriers against unilateral deals with Russia.
Several senators from both parties have labeled the diesel deal illegal and called on the US government to rectify its decision.