US President Donald Trump's recent deal to purchase diesel from Russia has raised concerns among Ukraine and its allies. The deal includes a temporary easing of US sanctions against Moscow, which has been perceived by many in Ukraine and Europe as a betrayal by the US.
Trump's announcement of the diesel deal coincided with a proposed 'energy ceasefire' between Ukraine and Russia, which Ukraine claims was not discussed with them. Ukrainian officials indicated they would consider halting attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocated.
Security expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University Munich commented that these developments suggest Trump's priorities lie more in domestic US politics and relations with Russia than in supporting Ukraine. He noted that Trump may be attempting to influence the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3 through this agreement.
The midterm elections will see all House of Representatives seats and a portion of Senate seats contested. Polls indicate that Trump's Republican Party may lose its majority in the House, and possibly in the Senate as well. With American voters expressing dissatisfaction over high fuel prices, Trump appears to be seeking to address these concerns through Russian diesel shipments.
However, analysts, including Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne, argue that the volume of diesel involved is too small to significantly impact US fuel prices. Jäger stated that the shipments planned before the midterm elections would not meet US diesel demand for even a single day.
Critics in Kyiv and EU countries have expressed concern that revenue from diesel sales could be used by Russia to fund its military actions against Ukraine. Masala does not expect the US agreement to have any significant military benefits for Russia, noting that despite financial resources, Russia lacks a coherent military strategy for advancing in the Donbas region.
Another concern for Kyiv is the potential US decision to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine and halt the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program, which facilitates the procurement of US weapons for Ukraine. Masala warned that a cessation of intelligence sharing could have severe consequences for Ukraine, though he noted that European intelligence, particularly from France, could help mitigate the impact.
Experts also highlight that Ukraine has broad bipartisan support in the US, as evidenced by the recent passage of the 'Lindsey Graham Act,' which tightens sanctions against Russia. Signed by Trump in September, this legislation provides the president with various tools to impose sanctions on Russian officials and financial institutions.
Former US diplomat Daniel Fried remarked that while Trump may resist certain actions, political dynamics following the midterms may compel the administration to seek an end to the conflict using the available legislative tools.
Several senators from both parties have criticized the diesel deal as illegal, urging the US government to rectify its decision.
This article was originally published in Ukrainian.