U.S. Military Increases Focus on Hypersonic Weapons Amid Cost Concerns

<p>The U.S. is working to replenish its missile stockpile while also developing new weapons. Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marines colonel and senior advisor with the CSIS Defense and Security Department, stated, "We're going to need all three tiers of missiles. The cheap ones, the ones that are now the high-end like Patriot and then maybe some hypersonics." The military is increasingly interested in hypersonic weapons, which are maneuverable and travel five times faster than the speed of sound.</p><p>Cameron Tracy, a Senior Research Scholar at UC Berkeley, noted, "These hypersonic systems are now seen as the novel revolutionary system and the ballistic missile is seen as the archaic one." According to estimates from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), missiles for the Army’s long-range hypersonic weapon, the Dark Eagle, could cost over $40 million each, while the Navy's Zumwalt Destroyers could see costs of $70 million per missile, including development and technology integration costs. The GAO also reported that the modernization project is two years behind schedule.</p><p>Xiaodon Liang, a senior policy analyst for Nuclear Weapons Policy and Disarmament at the Arms Control Association, mentioned that the Army believes the long-ranged hypersonic weapon will become cheaper as production increases. For comparison, Tomahawk missiles cost around $2.6 million, Patriot missiles nearly $4 million, and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) cost $1.6 million each. The U.S. Navy could purchase nearly 27 Tomahawks for the price of one hypersonic missile aboard the Zumwalt Destroyers, and the Army could acquire about 25 PrSMs for the cost of one Dark Eagle hypersonic weapon.</p><p>Liang added, "The U.S. has invested in recent years in several of the programs that are starting to become into fruition. These are exquisite weapons. And I think that the military is acquiring them for exquisite purposes." Hypersonic weapons can travel up to 20 times faster than traditional missiles, reducing an adversary’s reaction time by six times. The Atlantic Council estimates that 75% fewer hypersonic weapons would be needed for a mission.</p><p>Startups are aiming to reduce production costs for hypersonic weapons through more affordable missiles and enhanced testing capabilities. Bryon Hargis, co-founder and CEO of Castelion, stated, "The weapon itself is under $500,000, which, if you know about munitions, that's incredibly cheap." The Army and Navy are investing in Castelion's Blackbeard hypersonic weapon, which is designed for mass production. Castelion has begun constructing what it claims will be the largest dedicated hypersonic weapon production factory in the U.S., known as Project Ranger, which is expected to produce thousands of Blackbeard weapons annually.</p><p>Hargis explained, "The advantage of a hypersonic system is that it goes very far, it gets there quickly and it's highly survivable because of that maneuverability. And that's important for achieving deterrence because it's hard to shoot down." Hypersonic weapons primarily operate within Earth’s atmosphere, are maneuverable during flight, and can strike targets quickly, within 15-30 minutes from approximately 1,725 miles away.</p><p>Liang expressed concerns about the potential for misinterpretation of hypersonic strikes, stating, "If you don't know what the target would be initially, unlike a ballistic missile where you can calculate where it'll land, you might misinterpret, for example, an incoming strike as a decapitation attempt. And that would be very concerning." Developers assert that the U.S. communicates with other countries regarding missile launches and intended targets, but there are worries that hypersonic maneuverability could lead to inaccuracies.</p><p>Tracy noted that while technologies tend to improve over time with testing and experience, there are significant physical constraints on the performance of these systems. Defense contractor Rocket Lab is collaborating with the War Department to enhance hypersonic missile capabilities through increased test launches. Brian Rogers, Vice President of Global Launch Services at Rocket Lab, stated, "With our HASTE program, what we have enabled is low-cost, high-frequency hypersonic and missile defense testing. And when you can say that you can get that cheaper and faster, now you're looking at more of a shots on goal approach to demonstrating capability of the technology insertion cycle."</p><p>Rocket Lab’s HASTE is a suborbital test bed launch vehicle that provides flight test opportunities for the government to advance hypersonic and suborbital system technology development. The vehicle is based on Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, which has completed nearly 100 missions. Rogers added, "Rather than saying we need to be stuck in an analysis environment, and then it's a very rigorous test campaign that costs a lot of money and involves a lot of people, now you can say we're planning 12 tests this year. We don't have to bet the farm on any one of them, which allows us to take more risk and really move the needle in terms of technology development."</p><p>Although the U.S. military has never deployed a hypersonic weapon, it has explored the possibility of using its Dark Eagle in the Middle East. Liang remarked, "I would be very surprised if we used them and would be even more surprised if we used it extensively because of the small number of missiles that exist and the concerns already about the munitions stockpile."</p>