US President Donald Trump plans to allow the purchase of Russian diesel, which has drawn criticism from Ukraine and other nations. The agreement permits Moscow to supply diesel fuel to global markets, as reported by Axios, and is seen as a response to Ukraine's failure to comply with US demands regarding attacks on Russian oil refineries. Trump also suggested it may be time for Ukraine to have a new president.
The announcement of the diesel deal coincided with discussions among Ukrainian, US, and European representatives in Miami. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the decision, stating it was 'a weak decision by strong partners.' This situation reflects ongoing tensions in Ukraine's relationship with the Trump administration, which have previously included a suspension of weapons deliveries and intelligence-sharing agreements.
Experts, including Mykhailo Honchar from the Ukrainian Center for Global Studies, suggest there is no immediate cause for alarm, recalling similar past threats that were later mitigated. They note that Trump's actions may be influenced by the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3, where all House seats and approximately one-third of Senate seats are contested.
Ivan Us from the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv anticipates a significant defeat for the Republicans, attributing it to high fuel prices linked to Trump's foreign policies. He argues that Trump may be using Ukraine as a scapegoat to divert attention from these issues.
Honchar views the diesel deal as potentially benefiting Russia, suggesting it may be a request from Putin for Trump to influence Ukraine. The deal is also speculated to relate to the sale of foreign assets of Russian oil company Lukoil, with possible buyers having ties to Trump.
Experts advise caution, suggesting that Ukraine should maintain communication with the US to avoid losing security assistance. They propose that Ukraine collaborate with European nations to make the delivery of Russian diesel impractical, as tankers would need to navigate through territorial waters of these countries.
Us warns against overreacting to the rhetoric surrounding the deal, indicating that public statements may not reflect actual intentions. He also mentions the possibility of a legal challenge to Trump's decision, citing a 2022 law that prohibits imports of Russian oil and energy products.
Despite the threats, experts believe it is unlikely that Trump will take further action against Ukraine, especially considering the potential political repercussions. They suggest that the situation may improve after the midterm elections, as abandoning Ukraine could be perceived as a weakness toward China. Honchar emphasizes that Trump's actions are already facing criticism from within the Republican Party, which could lead to legislative efforts to block Russian oil purchases.