In September 2026, Dr. Colleen Golja participated in a simulation in London aimed at assessing the global response to solar geoengineering technologies. The simulation, titled Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies, involved experts from various fields, including foreign relations, science, and military, who gathered at Queen Mary University of London to discuss the implications of solar radiation modification technologies.
The technologies under consideration are designed to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight away from Earth, potentially reversing some effects of global warming. However, these methods come with significant risks and uncertainties, particularly regarding their impact on different regions. For example, models suggest that sub-Saharan Africa could experience drying, while the Atlantic may see more intense tropical storms.
The simulation was structured around a fictional UN committee tasked with coordinating international responses to solar geoengineering advancements. Participants engaged in discussions set in three timeframes: the present, September 2027, and September 2028, with escalating stakes introduced throughout the game.
During the first session, distrust and misinformation were prevalent among participants. Representatives from the US and China expressed concerns about signing agreements that might hinder their national interests. The simulation included a scenario where Russian delegates received an intelligence report suggesting US involvement in geoengineering research, leading to accusations of disinformation from the US team.
The dynamics of the simulation mirrored real-world geopolitical tensions, with players abandoning negotiations due to mutual suspicion. Jeffrey Nielsen, a participant representing the US, described the outcome as a significant victory for the US, despite the fact that the Chinese team was not conducting experiments in the game.
Experts involved in the simulation noted that the competition for geoengineering capabilities could resemble nuclear arms dynamics, with both the US and China reluctant to relinquish control over such technologies. Cynthia Scharf, a former UN advisor, emphasized the need for transparent international collaboration to avoid dangerous competition.
The simulation highlighted the challenges of integrating scientific perspectives into political discussions. Golja expressed frustration at the lack of interest in scientific data, as participants often sought information to support their own agendas rather than engage with the science itself.
As the simulation progressed, players faced a scenario involving a detected plume of aerosols linked to a US-Saudi test of geoengineering technology. The Climate Futures Cooperative, an NGO that emerged in the game, attempted to fund monitoring efforts but was later revealed to be backed by fossil fuel interests, complicating the scientific dialogue.
Despite multiple proposals, no agreements were reached during the simulation. The final report from the organizers concluded that strategic competition overshadowed climate concerns in the discussions. The simulation serves as a reflection of the complexities involved in addressing climate change through geoengineering, emphasizing the need for effective communication and collaboration among nations.