WASHINGTON — With the midterm elections just over three weeks away, the competition for control of the U.S. Senate is intensifying in battleground states, as Democrats target traditionally Republican areas and Republicans increase funding for key races.
Campaigns are entering a critical phase for persuading independent voters, who are likely to influence the outcomes in swing states. Most of the competitive Senate races are located in states with significant numbers of voters unaffiliated with either major party, referred to as the "kingmakers" in these midterms, according to Jeremy Gruber, senior vice president of Open Primaries.
"Independent voters are going to be deciding this election in every respect," Gruber stated.
The urgency to attract nonaligned voters has been evident in recent debates, advertisements, and campaign funding in key states. Republicans are attempting to distance themselves from President Trump, while Democrats are often shifting rhetoric toward the center.
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson emphasized her independence from Trump during a debate. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is promoting a video presenting himself as both liberal and conservative. In Alaska, a Republican-backed advertising campaign aims to portray Democrat Mary Peltola as lacking independence.
While many independent voters have made their decisions, those still undecided are expected to finalize their choices soon as mail ballots are distributed and early voting begins in some states.
"For Republicans who are running behind and are looking at a potentially challenging midterm election, they need to target independents who lean Republican," said Karen Kedrowski, a political scientist at Iowa State University. "For Democrats in places like Iowa, they need to make it seem safe for independents to vote for a Democratic candidate."
Most Republicans are trying to separate themselves from Trump without specifying differences. Independent voters have historically been crucial in swing states, especially where races are often decided by narrow margins. This year, they are seen as particularly persuadable due to public dissatisfaction with Trump's economic policies.
Forecasts suggest that Democrats may gain a House majority and could hold a majority of gubernatorial seats for the first time since 2010. Senate control remains uncertain, but Democrats' chances are perceived to have improved since the summer.
Recent New York Times/Siena polls indicated Democratic candidates leading in Texas, Michigan, Alaska, and Ohio, with close races in Kansas and Iowa—states that Trump won in 2024. Conversely, Republicans are optimistic about their prospects in Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, which voted Democratic in the last presidential election.
Republicans currently have a significant fundraising advantage, with party donors increasing their contributions to key races. By the end of September, GOP advertising spending had more than doubled compared to August, surpassing Democratic spending, according to AdImpact. In the nine tightest Senate races, Republicans have outspent Democrats, as reported by AdImpact.
However, the Cook Political Report recently shifted 18 House races in favor of Democrats, noting that heavy Republican ad spending has not yet yielded favorable results.
Democrats believe they are in a strong position to win the majority, according to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "In this final stretch of the election, Democrats will continue to vigorously campaign and fight for every vote across the expanded map," Gillibrand stated.
Republicans are confident in their ability to win over voters in key states, as noted by Bernadette Breslin, spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "Republicans will defend the Senate majority across key battlegrounds that have trended reliably red," Breslin said, highlighting candidates like Mike Rogers in Michigan and Roger Marshall in Kansas.
Analysts suggest that midterm outcomes may also depend on turnout levels within each party. If segments of party supporters do not vote—such as disillusioned conservatives in Kansas or frustrated Black Democrats in Michigan—individual races could be affected.
The number of independent voters has reached a record high this year, with 45% of American adults identifying as political independents in Gallup polling, compared to 27% identifying as Republicans and 27% as Democrats. This trend is partly driven by younger voters, particularly millennials and Gen Z, choosing not to affiliate with either party.
Independent voters constitute a majority in Alaska and between 30% and 40% of registered voters in Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. They make up about 29% in Kansas and approximately 16% in Texas and Michigan, according to state data from the Independent Voter Project.
Recent polls indicate that independent voters have shown a preference for Democrats and expressed dissatisfaction with Trump. In a late September Emerson College Polling survey, 66% of independents stated that Trump has performed worse than expected during his second term.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 32 points among independents in a September poll by Texas Public Opinion Research. In Ohio, Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 27 points among independents in a CNN poll released Thursday.
In Kansas, where the Senate race has become unexpectedly competitive due to economic grievances against Trump, disapproval of the president's performance among independents appears to be affecting incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, the Republican seeking reelection. A recent Emerson College/Nexstar poll indicated that 52% of respondents viewed Marshall unfavorably, while 62% disapproved of Trump's performance.
The inquiry will include a hearing at the White House on November 5, as stated in a memo from Trump, indicating that Cook "shall" attend to answer questions from the committee. The hearing will not be public, but a transcript will be published.
In these battleground states, both parties face a challenging fight. With control of the Senate at stake, candidates are actively competing in fundraising and on the campaign trail to secure every vote.
"Both campaigns are raising substantial amounts of money and are spending it all because they have to," stated Alexandra Middlewood, a political science professor at Wichita State University, referring to the Kansas Senate race. "They are really going to have to fight it out until the end."
Debates serve as another avenue for candidates to connect with independent voters, according to Corwin Smidt, a political science professor at Michigan State University. In Michigan, Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers has distanced himself from Trump in recent weeks, while Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has announced a rally with former President Obama to appeal to mainstream voters.
Candidates must balance appealing to their party base while also persuading independent voters. In the final campaign stretch, candidates seeking independent votes should demonstrate a willingness to acknowledge their party's shortcomings and recognize that voters are often turned off by partisan rhetoric, according to Chad Peace, a legal strategist at the Independent Voter Project.
"They have to communicate to those folks and try to meet them where they’re at," Peace said. "Independents want campaigns focused on persuasion, not negative attacks on opponents." Gruber emphasized that independent voters will respond to candidates and parties that engage with them directly.