By 2045, Germany's population is expected to decrease from 83.5 million in 2025 to approximately 81.8 million, according to a study from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development in collaboration with the Wüstenrot Foundation. The study highlights that while the overall population is declining, some regions may experience growth depending on their economic attractiveness.
The report indicates that the primary challenge is not just the population decline but the increasing number of retirees coupled with a shrinking workforce. The working-age population is projected to decrease by 4.7% by 2045. Catherina Hinz, President of the Institute, noted that the baby boomer generation is retiring, and smaller cohorts are following, with declining birth rates and insufficient immigration to counterbalance the surplus of deaths over births.
The study reveals that demographic changes are not uniform across Germany. Regions that offer high-quality jobs, skilled labor, robust municipalities, reliable childcare, and efficient transport are likely to attract residents. Major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich, and Düsseldorf are expected to grow, while some western cities like Bremen and Duisburg may see population losses due to diminishing economic appeal.
The report also highlights that many sparsely populated regions, particularly in eastern Germany, are projected to face significant declines in their working-age populations, with losses of up to 18% by 2045. The competition for workers is identified as a key demographic challenge moving forward, with southern German states like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg viewed as having the strongest prospects due to their thriving economies.
The researchers recommend that policymakers address structural challenges and regional disparities, emphasizing that tailored solutions are necessary for different regions. Local authorities have been advocating for greater financial autonomy to better address these challenges, although budgetary constraints at the federal and state levels complicate this issue. Both sides acknowledge the need for reform in Germany's fiscal federalism to effectively manage these demographic changes.