Hurricane Isaias has intensified into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season as it approaches the northern shoreline of the United States Gulf Coast, with forecasts indicating it will strike Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi this weekend. The storm is expected to bring rainfall totals of 3-6 inches, with isolated peaks up to 10 inches.
The National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, predicts that Isaias will make landfall in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi late Friday or early Saturday. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to flooding and storm surges. On Thursday, the center advised residents in likely impact zones to complete all emergency life-safety and property protections.
A hurricane watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, through Indian Pass in northwestern Florida, in anticipation of heavy rain and a significant risk of localized flash and urban flooding. Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, stated that Isaias is expected to reach near-major hurricane strength by Friday as it moves north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
As of Thursday morning, the storm was packing maximum sustained winds of nearly 130 km/h (80 mph) with higher gusts. Heavy rain and flash flooding are also anticipated in inland areas throughout the weekend, extending as far as the Tennessee Valley and potentially affecting a broad stretch from the inland southeast up through the southern Appalachian Mountains.
In preparation for the storm, oil and gas producers have shut down a significant portion of offshore production in the US Gulf, which accounts for nearly 15 percent of the crude oil produced annually in the US. As of Wednesday, approximately 25 percent of oil production in the region had been temporarily halted, amounting to about 511,000 barrels a day taken off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. Eight of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms have been evacuated.
The production cuts are significant enough to impact markets, although previous Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, according to Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. He noted that the more concerning factor is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
When Isaias was first declared a hurricane on Wednesday, it marked the latest date for the first hurricane of an Atlantic season in 121 years, just short of the record set in 1905, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 through November 30.