Jack Rankin, the Parliamentary Private Secretary to Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, suggested at a conference fringe that the Conservative Party may consider reducing tobacco duty. He expressed concerns about high taxes contributing to an increase in black-market cigarettes. Rankin stated that while a tax cut is not the party's immediate priority, he believes there is a strong argument for it based on the Laffer curve theory, which posits that excessive tax rates can lead to decreased revenue as individuals seek to evade taxes.
He noted that estimates indicate between one-third and one-half of cigarettes sold are illicit, attributing this to the significant price difference between illegal and legal packs—£3.50 for illicit versus £20 in stores. Rankin estimated that the government could be losing between £1.7 billion and £4.7 billion due to the size of the illicit market, reinforcing his argument for a tax reduction.
Additionally, Rankin criticized many sin-tax policies as illiberal and ineffective, suggesting they stem from civil servants with a strong belief in promoting clean lifestyles. He referenced a previous initiative by former Tory leader Rishi Sunak, which aimed to ban smoking for individuals born after January 1, 2009. This initiative was paused during the 2024 General Election but was later enacted by Labour and became law in April, with restrictions set to take effect next year.