<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Pentagon is focused on determining the willingness of allies and adversaries to engage in conflict, a complex assessment that can have significant implications. This evaluation involves various factors, including the stakes of the conflict, its triggers, enemy perceptions, morale, and objectives.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a framework titled “Analyzing Will to Fight” last week, which aims to assist intelligence community analysis. The public release is part of an initiative to inform Americans about challenges and threats to U.S. national security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Recent events, such as the collapse of the Afghan Army and Ukraine's defense against Russia, have highlighted the challenges in accurately assessing a force's willingness to fight. The framework states, “Will to fight can change quickly, dramatically, and many times over the course of a conflict for each party to the conflict.” It emphasizes that this assessment is one of the most challenging aspects of military capability analysis due to its intangible nature.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The framework notes that analyzing a military’s willingness to fight is just one of several factors in a broader assessment of military capabilities. It is often more difficult to gauge a military's determination compared to evaluating their physical assets, such as the number and condition of aircraft.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A DIA spokesperson indicated that the framework was released around the fifth anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was completed on August 30, 2021. In 2021, U.S. military expectations regarding the Afghan Army's ability to resist the Taliban were proven incorrect when the Afghan forces and government collapsed as the U.S. withdrew.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Conversely, prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many experts, including U.S. officials, underestimated Ukraine's capacity to resist. The initial expectation was that Russian forces would quickly capture Kyiv. However, after initial resistance, Ukraine managed to hold off Russian advances, leading to a shift in Russian objectives.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 2024, then-DIA chief Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse remarked that the Ukrainians displayed a willingness to fight that exceeded prior estimates. Following this misjudgment, Kruse noted that the team developed a methodology to better assess the “will to fight.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The DIA’s recently released framework is a result of this review.</p>