Former President Donald Trump has attributed the recent increases in fuel prices to Democratic-led states, particularly California, and to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated, "What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz... but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats."
Despite Trump's claims regarding domestic refinery closures, data indicates that daily oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have decreased by 97 percent since the onset of the conflict, impacting global supply. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price for a gallon of gasoline has risen to $4.36, up from $4.14 a month ago and $2.98 on February 28, when the US and Israel initiated strikes on Iran.
Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, noted that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are affecting oil product markets, stating, "Middle Eastern flows are far from normal." On October 5, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, responding to pressure from the White House. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached its lowest level since 1982.
Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, mentioned that the US has advised some European Union members to release their strategic reserves to avoid a potential US diesel export ban, which has led to a decrease in oil prices. Ukraine's Ministry of Defence reported that its attacks have disabled more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity, further contributing to price increases, especially for diesel fuel.
Ziemba added that the damage to Russian refineries and the potential for new US sanctions are worsening the situation, while the underlying issue remains the unstable oil flows from the Middle East. An analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that Russian refinery throughput hit its lowest level in two decades in June, with diesel production falling by 30 percent over the past 18 months.
Trump's comments come as midterm elections approach, and a recent AP-NORC poll indicates that a majority of Americans, 65 percent, attribute rising prices to Trump's policies, with 61 percent believing the economy is worse than when he returned to office.