Milorad Dodik Claims Victory in Bosnia Election Amid Ethnic Tensions

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina (AP) — Bosnian Serb nationalist politician Milorad Dodik has declared victory for his party in an election in Bosnia on Sunday that was influenced by economic pressures, the potential for the Balkan nation to join the European Union, and ongoing ethnic tensions that have persisted since the 1992-95 war. Dodik, a pro-Russia politician, did not appear on the ballot but has been a dominant figure in the campaign, using separatist rhetoric that has raised concerns about renewed instability in Bosnia. Previously the president of the Serb-majority entity of Republika Srpska, Dodik was banned from holding public office after being convicted last year of defying the international envoy overseeing the 1995 peace agreement that concluded the war. With nearly 90% of votes counted, Dodik's ally Zeljka Cvijanovic of the right-wing Alliance of Independent Social Democrats received over 55% of the votes for one of the three seats in the country's tripartite presidency, leading her nearest opponent by approximately 30 percentage points. At a news conference late Sunday, Dodik stated that his nationalist party would hold a "vast majority" in Republika Srpska's assembly and credited U.S. President Donald Trump's "magnificent victory" in 2024 and Russian President Vladimir Putin's support for the election win. "No one should ask us to change our politics," Dodik said. "We will not give up, but continue for our people ... I cannot believe that we smashed it like this." Approximately 3.4 million voters were eligible to select the three members of the multi-ethnic presidency, lawmakers for the national parliament, and heads of institutions for the country's two entities: the Muslim-majority Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, which is predominantly ethnic Serb. With over 94% of votes counted, Darijana Filipovic of the nationalist Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina led for the Croat seat on the presidency, while incumbent Bosniak member of the presidency Denis Becirovic of the Social Democratic Party was ahead of his nearest opponent, Bakir Izetbegovic, by fewer than three percentage points. Both Filipovic and Becirovic declared victory in their races late Sunday before all votes were counted. Bosnia's Central Election Commission reported that 1,432,269 votes were cast, resulting in a turnout of 42%, which is down by about 8% from the last election in 2022. The country's complex governing institutions were established by a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in 1995 to manage the ethnic divisions among Muslim Bosniaks, Orthodox Serbs, and Catholic Croats that led to the war. However, Dodik has consistently challenged those limits, openly defying Bosnia's national government in Sarajevo and advocating for Republika Srpska's separation from the country. At his party's final election rally on Friday night in Banja Luka, Dodik stated that Bosnia "is dead" and called it "an impossible country." Political and ethnic divisions, where Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats largely vote along ethnic lines, have hindered Bosnia's progress toward EU membership despite the bloc's efforts to encourage cooperation among the country's leaders. Analyst Dragan Bursac noted that despite Dodik not being on the ballot for the first time in nearly 30 years, he remains influential. "It is obvious that these measures to ban him from political life are not working, and he is using them," Bursac said. Bosnia, one of Europe's poorest countries, continues to struggle with recovery decades after the war that began in 1992 following the country's declaration of independence from the Serb-led former Yugoslavia. The conflict resulted in the deaths of over 100,000 people and the displacement of millions. Recent public homage in Serbia and among Bosnian Serbs to wartime army commander Ratko Mladic, who died in late August while serving a life sentence for genocide and other war crimes, has revived Bosnia's wartime wounds. Bosnian Serbs regard Mladic as a hero despite his conviction by a U.N. court for the massacre of over 8,000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica in 1995, along with other atrocities. This election marked the first time Bosnia utilized electronic voter identification and ballot scanners to prevent irregularities or organized voter manipulation, which have previously raised concerns about election fairness. On Sunday morning, Associated Press journalists observed multiple polling places where voting could not commence on time due to issues with the new digital technology. Bosnia's election commission announced late Sunday that some polling stations experiencing disruptions earlier in the day would be allowed to remain open past the 7 p.m. cutoff. Some voters in Banja Luka expressed concerns that the new digital systems could confuse older voters. Republika Srpska's interior ministry reported delays at 201 of the 1,957 polling stations in the entity.