Demographic Changes Among Latter-day Saints Raise Questions About Church Distinctiveness

<p>Mormons, or members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS), have historically identified as a "peculiar people." Statistically, they have exhibited higher birth rates, marriage rates, and larger family sizes compared to other religious groups such as Protestants, Catholics, Jews, and Buddhists. Additionally, they have a relatively high retention rate, with many individuals born into the faith remaining members for life. However, recent trends indicate a shift in these long-held patterns.</p><p>The Church is not facing a crisis, but rather a demographic shift, according to historian Jana Riess. As of 2024, only about half of young people born into the Church remain members, a decrease from over 80 percent in the 1980s. The marriage rate among Latter-day Saints has declined by 10 percent since 2011, and the number of annual recorded births per 1,000 LDS members has dropped from 25 to five over the past 40 years, according to an analysis by independent data scientist Alex Bass.</p><p>The challenges facing the LDS Church are not unique, as many religious groups in the United States are experiencing declining birth rates and retention. Doug Andersen, a spokesperson for the Church, stated that official records show consistent worldwide increases in both membership and participation, partly due to a record number of converts joining globally.</p><p>The demographic changes have prompted the Church's new leader, Dallin Oaks, to take notice. In his first conference address since becoming prophet, Oaks acknowledged the decline in marriage and birth rates, emphasizing the Church's identity as a family-oriented institution. He quoted the 1995 "Family Proclamation," which asserts that God's commandment to multiply and replenish the earth remains in force.</p><p>Matthew Bowman, chair of Mormon Studies at Claremont Graduate University, noted that as religions grow beyond a core of strong believers, their distinctive practices may become less pronounced, leading to a resemblance to mainstream culture. He suggested that the demographic shifts in the LDS Church indicate a more noticeable process of assimilation.</p><p>While the LDS Church retains more young people compared to some individual Protestant denominations, political scientist Ryan Burge argues that this is not the appropriate comparison, as retention rates for Protestantism overall are higher. Lower retention rates among Latter-day Saints could have significant implications, including fewer missionaries and increased burdens on local church operations.</p><p>The Church is particularly struggling to retain young women. Research from Justin Dyer indicates that in 2025, fewer than 40 percent of 18-year-old girls remained in the faith. Many young women cite feeling undervalued by the Church, while some leave due to differing views on issues such as same-sex marriage.</p><p>In LDS theology, only men can hold the priesthood, which grants them authority in various leadership roles. This structure raises concerns about the Church's appeal to women in a changing cultural landscape. Some women, however, accept the Church's male priesthood and find ways to contribute to the faith. Recent changes, such as allowing women to direct Sunday school programs and lowering the age for women to serve missions, aim to address the retention issue among young women.</p><p>Despite these efforts, many young families are struggling to have larger families due to economic pressures. The cost of living in the so-called Mormon Corridor—Utah, Idaho, and Arizona—has risen above the national average since 2020, making it challenging for families to afford more children.</p><p>As younger families engage less with the cultural aspects of the Church, attendance at church activities has decreased. While the Church has grown internationally, the cultural practices established in Utah have not been easily exported. This shift may contribute to the challenges faced by American members in remaining engaged with the faith.</p><p>The Church continues to emphasize its commitment to family, urging members to heed the prophet's call to multiply and replenish the earth. However, this will require young people to remain active in the Church. Many religious organizations, including the LDS Church, are grappling with how to engage younger generations, who seek a balance between retreating from mainstream culture and assimilating into it.</p>