For years, Pakistan supported the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, recent developments have seen Pakistan conducting airstrikes on its neighbor. On Thursday night, Pakistan attacked targets in Afghanistan, with conflicting reports on the outcome. The Taliban claims that between nine and ten civilians were killed, including women and children, while Pakistan asserts that the strike resulted in the deaths of 22 militants and the destruction of weapons and ammunition depots.
These early October attacks mark a continuation of escalating tensions that reignited in mid-September after a period of relative calm. The renewed conflict followed a series of attacks on Pakistani security forces, including a significant incident on September 18, when an attack on a police compound in Kohat resulted in 31 fatalities and over 100 injuries. The Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the Kohat attack and is believed to have received support from Afghanistan, a claim that Afghanistan denies.
The TTP operates independently from the Afghan Taliban, although they share ideological ties. The TTP has gained leverage since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021, complicating Pakistan's security landscape. Pakistan has urged the Taliban to take action against the TTP, but analysts suggest that the close ties between the two groups hinder such efforts. Conrad Schetter, director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, noted that the Taliban's connections to the TTP make it difficult for them to sever ties.
Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, emphasized that the Taliban is not inclined to take orders from Islamabad. This dynamic indicates that Pakistan's strategy of supporting the Taliban to exert influence in Afghanistan has not yielded the desired results.
Another layer to the conflict is the historical dispute over the Durand Line, established in 1893, which delineates the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and divides the Pashtun ethnic group. This border dispute is not solely territorial but also involves issues of identity, as many Pashtuns reject the legitimacy of the Durand Line.
Pakistan's longstanding rivalry with India further complicates the situation, as a cooperative Afghanistan would have been beneficial for Pakistan. However, India has strengthened its ties with the Taliban, leading Pakistan to view Afghanistan as a liability rather than an asset.
Despite the tensions, Pakistan retains leverage over Afghanistan due to its control of trade routes. Afghanistan, being landlocked, relies on Pakistan for trade, which allows Pakistan to exert pressure through border closures and trade restrictions. Diplomatic efforts have included talks mediated by the Taliban, but these have yet to resolve the underlying issues regarding attacks originating from Afghan territory.
The Taliban faces its own challenges, as it fears that a harsh crackdown on the TTP could push its members toward the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (IS-K), an opposing militant group. The conflict escalated further at the end of September, with reports of infiltrators from Pakistan being killed and captured in Afghanistan. The Taliban accused Pakistan of supporting armed opposition groups, a claim that Pakistan denies.
The situation has evolved into a mutual accusation of support for armed groups across the border, with analysts noting a significant escalation compared to previous skirmishes. Ruttig suggests that returning to negotiations could help contain the violence, advocating for international mediation to protect civilians.
In a commentary for The Friday Times, Pakistani analyst Saqib Ali Khan proposed establishing reliable communication channels between Islamabad and Kabul, addressing armed groups separately, and involving local populations in conflict resolution. He emphasized that the conflict extends beyond a government dispute, encompassing security, border, economic, and regional dimensions.
Schetter concluded that long-term solutions would require greater economic integration between Pakistan and Afghanistan, moving beyond a relationship defined solely by security and power dynamics. This story was originally published in German.