Latvian Prime Minister's Party Leads in Exit Polls During Parliamentary Elections

According to an exit poll by public broadcaster LSM, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist party, United List, was projected to win 35.6% of the vote in the parliamentary elections held on Saturday. The exit poll indicated that Kulbergs' party took a comfortable lead in the elections. Kulbergs stated, "It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such result," at his party's headquarters in Riga. The populist Latvia First party was projected to come in second place with 11.3%, nearly double its share from the last election in 2022, having appealed to the country's significant ethnic Russian minority. Kulbergs announced that he would not cooperate with any pro-Russian parties and ruled out forming a coalition with Latvia First. Approximately 1.5 million people were eligible to vote in Latvia's 11th parliamentary election since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The election involved 100 seats in the Saeima contested by 14 parties using a proportional representation system, with rising living costs and national security concerns dominating the campaign. Kulbergs has been in office since May, following the collapse of the previous government over a dispute regarding Ukrainian drones. Despite leading in opinion polls, his coalition is expected to be weakened due to gains by populist parties. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is viewed as a direct threat to Latvia's national security, as it shares historical ties with Ukraine and has a sizable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority. Latvia is a member of both the European Union and NATO, unlike Ukraine. Riga has committed to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense, which limits spending in other areas. Many Latvians express concerns over high prices and low wages, with a sluggish economy, a strained health system, and challenges related to emigration and an aging population. Populist movements, including the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, have sought to capitalize on public discontent by advocating for a less stringent approach towards Moscow and questioning the economic decoupling from Russia. However, no parties are suggesting a significant change in Latvia's foreign policy alignment with the EU and NATO. Four German Eurofighter jets have been deployed to protect Latvian airspace during the election at Riga's request. After the ballots are counted, focus will likely shift to coalition negotiations, which may be lengthy and complex. Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday.