Ethiopia and Sudan are exchanging accusations regarding the armed conflicts they are experiencing. In the past week, three militias from a new alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) have engaged in combat with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in northern Ethiopia. This alliance, known as the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival," consists of seven armed domestic groups opposing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.
The ENDF's commander-in-chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, has alleged that Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt are providing support to the TPLF. Sudan's military government has dismissed these claims as "baseless" and has accused Ethiopia of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, which has been in conflict with Sudan's army for over three years.
Eritrea has suggested that Ethiopia is attempting to deflect responsibility for its internal conflicts onto neighboring countries, while Cairo has denied any involvement. Experts indicate that while the conflict is primarily domestic, it has significant foreign policy implications due to the involvement of various external actors.
Susanne Stollreiter, head of the Ethiopia office of Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation, noted that these actors have interests that could be advanced by the conflict. She suggested that if the situation escalates, it could lead to broader regional conflict.
Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war since April 2023, with both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF having connections to groups involved in the Ethiopian conflict. The TPLF, which was largely defeated in the 2020–22 Tigray War, has reportedly organized in Sudan and fought alongside the SAF against the RSF.
In May, Sudan's government hosted representatives from the TPLF and other Ethiopian opposition groups, some of which are now part of the new alliance. Reports have also indicated that the RSF has received training in Ethiopia, allegedly with support from the United Arab Emirates, which has denied these claims.
Currently, there are no indications of direct involvement by the Sudanese army or the RSF in the Ethiopian conflict, nor is there evidence of Eritrea's role in the recent escalation. However, speculation regarding Eritrean support for the TPLF persists, particularly given historical tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Analysts have expressed concern that Eritrea may be using the TPLF and other opposition groups to deter perceived Ethiopian aggression. The Horn of Africa is experiencing instability, with various actors vying for influence amid the absence of traditional protective powers in the region, such as the United States and European nations, which are preoccupied with other global issues.
While some experts believe the situation in Ethiopia is unlikely to escalate into a proxy war involving Gulf powers, the risk of internationalization remains high in the volatile Horn of Africa.