Conflict in Northern Ethiopia Escalates Beyond Tigray Region

Fighting is intensifying across northern Ethiopia, nearly four years after a peace deal ended a two-year war in the Tigray region. The conflict has spread into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions. Government-aligned forces reported capturing the strategic town of Alamata, Tigray, on September 28, while Tigrayan forces have advanced into Afar. Telecommunications have been cut across much of Tigray, and commercial flights have been suspended, affecting humanitarian operations. Ethiopia’s army chief has accused Eritrea, Sudan’s army, and Egypt of supporting armed groups, which these countries have denied. The fighting is concentrated in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, with multiple active fronts. In southern Tigray, government forces and allies have taken Alamata, located about 120km (75 miles) south of the regional capital, Mekelle. On September 22, between 15 and 17 drone strikes hit Alamata, impacting several schools and a hospital, according to the conflict monitor ACLED. A separate front has opened near the Tekeze River in western Tigray, an area disputed between Tigray and Amhara. Fighting has also spread into northern Amhara, particularly around Kobo and Gidan in North Wello zone and Sekota in Wag Hemra zone, which government forces retook on September 27. Tigrayan forces and the Afar armed group Ugugumo have advanced into Afar, with reports of fighting along the Tigray-Afar border. This advance could threaten the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia’s main route for imports, including fuel. On September 20, seven Ethiopian armed and political groups formed an alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing a transitional government. This group, called the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), among others. The alliance’s membership is contested, with some groups denying involvement. The TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and Ugugumo were reported to be actively fighting federal forces as of September 26. The alliance accused the government of dictatorial rule and stated that a transitional government would end the country’s wars and protect rights. Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, has about 139 million people and is one of the world’s most ethnically diverse countries, with over 80 ethnic groups. The renewed fighting is rooted in unresolved political and territorial tensions from the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces began near the Sudanese border on August 1, followed by federal drone strikes and Tigrayan troop deployments. In September, Tigrayan forces moved tanks and artillery south, with reports of renewed recruitment and forced mobilization in Tigray. On September 20, the TPLF and six other armed and political groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aiming to overthrow Abiy’s government. Fighting escalated sharply on September 23, with Tigrayan forces seizing airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, and pushing into Afar and Amhara. The government described the TPLF’s actions as an all-out offensive, while the TPLF characterized its efforts as a defensive war against federal forces.