Fox News Poll Shows Tight Race for Texas Senate Seat Between Talarico and Paxton

<p>According to a recent poll conducted by Fox News, Democratic candidate James Talarico holds a slight lead over Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas. The poll, released on October 1, 2026, indicates that Talarico has a net positive personal rating of 8 points, with 52% of respondents viewing him favorably compared to 44% unfavorably. In contrast, Paxton's ratings are negative, with 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable.</p><p>The poll highlights a disparity in enthusiasm among party supporters, with more MAGA Republicans expressing high interest in the midterms compared to non-MAGA Republicans (64% vs. 50%). Among Democrats, two-thirds of both Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and non-DSA members report high interest in voting.</p><p>Overall, the poll shows a near tie among likely voters, with Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%, a margin that falls within the sampling error. Among a larger sample of registered voters, Talarico's lead increases to 7 points, up from a 3-point lead in July.</p><p>Support for Talarico is notably strong among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), and voters under 35 (62%). Conversely, Paxton's strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and voters aged 65 and older (55%).</p><p>Concerns about economic issues are prevalent, with 70% of Texans indicating that the cost of living will significantly influence their Senate vote. Voters who feel financially strained tend to favor Talarico, while those who feel secure lean towards Paxton. Additionally, 48% of voters consider Trump and 47% immigration to be extremely important issues in their voting decisions.</p><p>In the governor's race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa with a 52%-47% advantage. Abbott enjoys higher approval ratings than Paxton, particularly among men, Republicans, and moderates.</p><p>The poll was conducted from September 24-28, 2026, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, surveying 1,203 registered voters in Texas. The margin of error for the registered voter sample is ±2.5 percentage points, while the margin for likely voters is ±3 percentage points.</p>