Fox News Poll Shows Tight Race Between El-Sayed and Rogers in Michigan Senate Race

<p>Michigan voters have expressed concerns about both candidates in the U.S. Senate race, leading to a competitive contest, according to a Fox News poll released on September 30, 2026. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers, with 50% of likely voters supporting El-Sayed compared to 49% for Rogers.</p><p>Among registered voters, the preference is nearly identical, with 51% favoring El-Sayed and 48% supporting Rogers. This marks a shift from August, when Rogers led by 4 points among registered voters.</p><p>The poll indicates that 87% of El-Sayed's supporters are confident in their choice, compared to 80% of Rogers' supporters. Overall, 15% of voters indicate they might change their choice before the election, including 18% of Rogers' supporters and 12% of El-Sayed's.</p><p>Concerns about the candidates are reflected in voter sentiment: 39% of respondents are extremely concerned that Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump, while 36% express worries that El-Sayed's views are too liberal. Favorability ratings show 47% of voters view El-Sayed positively, while 44% have a favorable view of Rogers. Since August, El-Sayed's positive ratings have increased by 5 points, while Rogers' have declined by 4 points.</p><p>El-Sayed's strongest support comes from demographics that typically lean Democratic, including women, Black voters, and younger voters under 45. Conversely, Rogers finds support among men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters, and Whites without a college degree.</p><p>Both candidates receive substantial backing from their respective parties, with 95% of Republicans supporting Rogers and 93% of Democrats supporting El-Sayed. Among independents, El-Sayed has a slight edge.</p><p>The political landscape appears to favor El-Sayed, as Democrats hold a 5-point advantage in preference for Senate control, with 52% favoring Democrats and 47% favoring Republicans. However, El-Sayed needs to consolidate support from Democrats following a contentious primary, as 11% of likely voters who supported his primary opponent plan to vote for Rogers.</p><p>Voter concerns about the economy are significant, with 40% of Michiganders feeling financially strained, favoring El-Sayed by 25 points. In contrast, those who feel their financial situation is stable tend to favor Rogers by 13 points. The cost of living is a critical issue for 70% of voters, who support El-Sayed by 13 points.</p><p>Half of Michigan voters consider Trump's influence on their Senate vote to be extremely important, with El-Sayed receiving 22 points more support from this group. In the 2024 election, Trump won Michigan by less than two percentage points, while Rogers narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.</p><p>Voter dissatisfaction with the current administration is affecting Rogers, as nearly 60% disapprove of the president's performance. Despite this, Rogers maintains competitiveness with support from 19% of Trump disapprovers.</p><p>In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by 54% to 45% among likely voters, with 12% of Rogers' supporters in the Senate race crossing party lines to support Benson.</p><p>The poll was conducted from September 24-28, 2026, with a sample of 1,203 Michigan registered voters. The margin of sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points for registered voters and ±3 percentage points for likely voters.</p>