California Poll Shows Plurality Support for Billionaire Tax Proposal

A plurality of likely California voters support a proposal on the state’s November ballot that would impose a one-time wealth tax on the richest Californians, but the measure is still short of majority support, according to a new NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group poll released on September 30, 2026. In the poll, 48% said they would vote 'yes' on the proposal, while 38% said they would vote 'no.' Another 14% said they were undecided. The 10-point lead for 'yes' is outside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side’s support level. The spread was almost identical among Hispanic likely voters: 50% said they’d vote 'yes,' 40% said they’d vote 'no,' and 10% said they were undecided. Both surveys were conducted from September 21 to September 24. The so-called billionaire tax — which will appear on the November ballot as 'Proposition 40' — would implement a one-time 5% tax on the assets of Californians with net worths exceeding $1.1 billion, and it would require the state to spend 90% of the new revenue on healthcare. The remaining 10% would be split between education and food assistance programs. In addition to the one-time tax on those worth more than $1.1 billion, the measure, if passed, would implement a smaller tax on individuals worth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. The taxes would apply retroactively to anyone living in the state as of January 1, 2026. The proposal has divided Democratic leaders in California. Prominent proponents — including Representative Ro Khanna and Tom Steyer — argue it would help close income inequality gaps and help make up for state budget shortfalls. Opponents of the ballot measure, including Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra, have argued the initiative could drive wealthy investors and tech leaders from the state. The details of the proposal, led by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, have also sparked opposition from many other unions and Democratic groups. Many Democratic critics have joined forces with some Republicans, who argue that a wealth tax could destabilize California’s revenue streams. However, the new poll showed that California voters were largely not worried about the prospect of wealthy residents leaving the state. A total of 59% of respondents said they were either 'not' or 'not too' concerned about that potential outcome, while 41% said they were 'very' or 'somewhat' concerned. Among Hispanic voters, 62% said they were either 'not' or 'not too' concerned. The poll also found California voters almost evenly split over whether they approve or disapprove of Governor Newsom's job performance. Forty-five percent of respondents approved of his job performance, while 46% disapproved. Another 9% said they weren’t sure. Hispanic voters were more positive about Newsom, with 54% approving and 38% disapproving of his performance as governor.