The Labour Party conference is currently taking place in Liverpool amid speculation about a potential snap election, which Labour leader Andy Burnham has dismissed as 'dead'. A recent poll conducted by the non-profit organization More in Common indicates that Labour could secure 250 seats in Parliament, an increase of approximately 140 seats since July. In comparison, the Reform Party is projected to have 147 seats, a decrease of 146 seats from previous estimates, while the Conservative Party is forecasted to hold 125 seats.
Despite this projected increase, Labour would still fall short of a majority in the House of Commons. However, they could potentially govern with support from the Liberal Democrats, who are expected to have 63 seats, and the Scottish National Party (SNP), projected to have 27 seats. This potential coalition has raised concerns among right-leaning factions, particularly regarding the possibility of a new Scottish independence referendum.
The More in Common research also suggests that tactical voting could allow Labour to gain an additional 25 seats, enabling them to achieve a majority with Liberal Democrat support alone. Burnham has reiterated his stance against an early election, emphasizing the need for a social care plan to be included in Labour's manifesto before any potential vote.
The poll, which surveyed nearly 16,000 adults between August 21 and September 21, employs the 'MRP' technique to analyze demographic characteristics across different regions. Luke Tryl, the UK Director of More in Common, noted that the political landscape has shifted significantly since last year's Labour Party Conference, where Reform was projected to have a substantial majority.
Tryl cautioned that electoral volatility remains a key factor, with many seats expected to be won by narrow margins. He also highlighted the potential for tactical voting to influence outcomes, suggesting that a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats could secure a majority while allowing the Conservatives to surpass Reform in seat count. He concluded that Burnham's decision to rule out an early election is a prudent one, given the current political climate and the risks associated with calling a snap election.